5.16 Early Morning Bitcoin Market Analysis
On Friday morning, it was reasonable to expect a pullback around 80,500.
In the afternoon, support at 80,000 held steady, suggesting a light bullish stance.
In the evening, we thought there might be a strong rebound, but as the US stock market was about to open, no significant rebound was seen, so the short position had to be closed early.
After the market opened, the price quickly dropped again, eventually hitting a new low of 78,610.
Fortunately, there was no hesitation, and the short position was closed in time.
Although subsequent profits from short positions were limited, the outcome was positive.
This time’s pullback did not effectively break below the middle support of the daily line.
Meanwhile, the volume of short positions quickly decreased, indicating that this wave was a concentrated release of short volume, which is unlikely to be sustained.
Currently, the one-hour timeframe shows that the momentum of short positions continues to weaken.
If this pullback cannot effectively break below 78,000 in the short term and open downwards space, a double bottom may form around 78,500, providing strong support for a subsequent bullish rebound.
The final support at 2203 stopped the decline, and the strength of the recent short positions has been greater than that of the bullish positions.
The bearish trend remains, and the 2200 support level is difficult to hold.
Going forward, focus on the pullback in the 78,800-79,000 range.
The key resistance level above is 80,000.
Below, support naturally is at 2200, while above, a breakout of the 2250-2265 range is needed.
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