The non-farm payroll data to be released tonight is generally expected to show the unemployment rate remaining at 4.4%, with approximately 50,000 new jobs added. However, the overall market liquidity is currently weak; if the data ultimately turns out to be significantly bearish, BTC is likely to face a deep correction. The most ideal scenario is for the data to remain neutral, avoiding sharp volatility. It is worth noting that tonight, in addition to the November data, the revised figures for October will also be released. Currently, both the US stock market and the crypto market are trading on the expectation of a "soft landing"—hoping for a gentle economic slowdown while the Federal Reserve maintains a relatively accommodative stance. BTC already declined earlier last night, briefly dropping below $86,000, then rebounded to around $88,000, during which the total liquidation amount across the network exceeded $500 million. This volatility mainly stems from previous excessive long leverage, combined with rising market risk aversion. However, on-chain activity shows that long-term holders have not significantly reduced their positions, and some institutional funds are still accumulating on dips. As long as tonight’s data does not deviate seriously from expectations, the market may exhibit a "rebound after expectations are met," with BTC short-term potential to rise to the $92,000–$95,000 range. Just took a quick look at the real-time position distribution and found that many long positions are entering again… #BTC行情分析 #市场触底了吗？

Ripple is expanding the stablecoin RLUSD towards multi-chain by testing RLUSD on Ethereum layer-2s such as Optimism, Base, Ink, and Unichain. RLUSD previously operated on XRP Ledger and Ethereum. An important point is that Ripple uses Wormhole technology to move RLUSD between blockchains as a native token, without the need for “wrapped,” helping to maintain unified liquidity and reduce risks. RLUSD is currently managed under a New York State Trust license, and Ripple is applying for an additional federal license.#BTCTechnicalRecoveryAfterBreakdown

## XRP Whale Holdings Hit 7-Year Peak While Price Action Remains Pressured The story behind XRP's current price weakness reveals an intriguing contrast. As of mid-December, the asset has dipped beneath the critical $2.0 level multiple times, testing support around $1.90 after a broader market pullback. Yet this apparent weakness masks significant activity from major stakeholders—and the data tells a fascinating tale of accumulation during bearish sentiment. **Concentrated Holdings Paint the Real Picture** Recent on-chain metrics show a structural shift in XRP distribution. The number of addresses holding 100 million tokens or more has contracted by roughly 20% over an eight-week window. At first glance, this looks bearish. However, the aggregate XRP controlled by these top-tier holders has climbed to approximately 48 billion tokens—a seven-year high. This matters because it signals consolidation: fewer wallets now command a larger combined position, and they're actively building rather than retreating. **Order Flow Reveals the Accumulation Pattern** The spot order activity paints a clearer picture of whale intent. Over a consecutive 30-day period, the average size of spot transactions remained elevated, a telltale sign of institutional-scale participation. For three consecutive weeks, the spot taker flow remained in positive territory, meaning buy orders dominated inflows. This isn't casual retail activity—it's deliberate, methodical accumulation across weak price action. **Chain Data Shows Sellers Aren't in Control** One often-overlooked metric is whale movement to trading platforms. Transfer volumes from large holders to exchanges have remained subdued, hovering near 1,000 per day throughout the month. Low exchange inflows suggest whales are not liquidating positions. Instead, assets are flowing into private wallet storage—a textbook indicator of long-term conviction. Current XRP metrics show 7.4 million addresses holding tokens, with the top 100 addresses controlling 67.83% of the accessible supply, underlining extreme concentration at elite holder levels. **Technical Setup Remains Hazardous Despite Accumulation** The price charts tell a different story than the on-chain data. The Relative Vigor Index has triggered a bearish crossover and fallen below the zero line—a sign that selling pressure has not yet been broken. Large holders accumulating does not automatically translate to immediate price support. Before any meaningful upside move materializes, buyers must generate enough force to overtake the bearish control currently evident in technical indicators. **Paths Forward and Risk Scenarios** The nearest resistance zone sits around $2.20 to $2.50, assuming whale demand can successfully absorb the sell-side pressure clustering around $2.0. Conversely, if bearish momentum intensifies, XRP could revisit the $1.90 support level or even probe lower. The critical variable is whether this hidden whale accumulation will eventually overwhelm technical weakness, or whether price discovery will undercut large holder entry points further downward. The paradox is clear: XRP whales are behaving like long-term accumulators at suppressed valuations, yet the market structure has not yet responded. Eventually one force must yield to the other.