BNB four-hour trend continues to be dominated by bears. The 30-day moving average has been effectively broken below, and there are no signs of a rebound or correction, with the weak market structure gradually deepening. There is no bottom concept; only a continuation of the decline is expected. From a technical perspective, the moving average system is fully in a bearish alignment, suppressing the upside; MACD continues to expand below the zero line, indicating full bearish momentum; RSI has a slight rebound but turns down at the 50 level, showing that bulls have no willingness to take over. Trading strategy: Shorting within the 898-908 range is a clearer choice. The short-term target focuses on the 880-870 level; if this support is lost again, then look for even lower supports at 865-850. Recent performances of SOL and XRP also require caution regarding downside risks.

A recent on-chain data set has attracted attention: XRP short-term holders have decreased their holdings by 0.8% over the past week, causing the proportion of short-term holders to total supply to drop to 4.9%. At first glance, this seems like a positive signal—selling pressure has eased. But things are not that simple. In simple terms, those quick in-and-out traders seem to be taking profits. Recently, XRP's price fluctuations have indeed provided them with some harvesting opportunities, so many have chosen to cash out. This phenomenon itself is not unusual. The issue is that short-term holders already account for a very small portion of the ecosystem—only 4.9%. This means their reduction in holdings is just a weak signal and unlikely to drive a major market move. Looking at it from another perspective: if we compare XRP to a financial ecosystem, short-term holders are like scattered customers who frequently consume. When their consumption frequency decreases, it doesn't necessarily mean the ecosystem is about to take off; we also need to consider the performance of institutions, long-term holders, and external factors. For example, regulatory policy trends, movements of large wallets—these are the real fundamentals supporting the market. It should be noted that a 0.8% change is a small fluctuation in the market and may simply be normal position adjustments. Additionally, short-term data can be easily influenced by large traders' washouts, so making trading decisions based solely on this indicator is too risky. If you want to consider such signals, it's best to combine them with technical indicators like RSI and MACD to form a more complete trading logic.