Pembacaan Cepat Analisis Teknis Multi-Aset 8 Desember: Rebound Bitcoin Kuat, Logam Mulia Terus Berjuang

StakeTillRetire · 2026-01-06T16:12:26+00:00

Fed Potong Bunga Dorong Ekspektasi, Obligasi Global Menghadapi Penilaian UlangPedagang mencapai ekspektasi 87% tertinggi untuk pengumuman pemotongan suku bunga oleh Fed setelah rapat minggu depan. Pasar secara luas memperkirakan bahwa pertemuan Desember akan meluncurkan siklus pemotongan suku bunga, dengan dua penyesuaian lagi tahun depan, dan suku bunga kebijakan akhirnya diharapkan kembali ke zona 3,00%-3,25%. Namun, pasar saat ini menunjukkan fenomena kontradiksi yang menarik — ketika ekspektasi pemotongan suku bunga meningkat, justru imbal hasil obligasi global mengalami kenaikan kolektif.Imbal hasil obligasi Treasury 10 tahun telah melampaui level 4,15%, imbal hasil obligasi Jepang 10 tahun mencapai 1,97%, dan imbal hasil obligasi pemerintah Jerman 10 tahun bahkan mencapai 2,81%. Kenaikan imbal hasil obligasi pemerintah yang mencakup tiga ekonomi besar Amerika, Jepang, dan Eropa ini mencerminkan kekhawatiran investor terhadap independensi Fed, ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga Bank Sentral Jepang, kesulitan fiskal Amerika, dan faktor multipel lainnya. Risiko pasar jelas tidak boleh diabaikan.Bitcoin: Stabil di 90.000

StakeTillRetire

2026-01-06 16:12:26

Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations Push Up Bond Yields, Global Government Bonds Face Revaluation

Traders have reached an 87% high expectation for the Federal Reserve to announce rate cuts after next week’s policy meeting. The market widely predicts that the December meeting will initiate a rate-cutting cycle, with two more adjustment opportunities next year, and the final policy rate is expected to decline to the 3.00%-3.25% range. However, the current market presents an intriguing paradox — as rate-cut expectations warm up, global bond yields are instead rising collectively.

The 10-year US Treasury yield has broken through the 4.15% level, the 10-year Japanese government bond yield has touched 1.97%, and the German 10-year government bond yield has climbed to 2.81%. This wave of government bond yield increases across the three major economies of the US, Japan, and Europe reflects investors’ concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence, expectations for Bank of Japan rate hikes, and the US fiscal predicament, among multiple factors. Market risks are clearly not to be underestimated.

Bitcoin: Stabilizing Above 90K, Opportunity to Challenge 100K Emerging

Bitcoin rose 1.8% intraday last Friday, reaching a high of $92,296, with the latest quote at 93.70K. It is worth noting that Bitcoin is currently maintaining its position above the 90,000 US dollar round level, overall in a clear rebound cycle, and the technical AO indicator shows that bulls are accumulating energy, with upward momentum being the optimal choice.

If Bitcoin can continue to maintain above $90,000, it is expected to further challenge the $95,000 and $100,000 round levels. Conversely, to reverse the uptrend, it needs to break below the $86,000 support level first to confirm.

Technical Reference Levels: Support at 90,000, 86,000, 75,000; Resistance at 95,000, 100,000, 106,000

Gold: Under Pressure at $4,200, Downside Risks Warrant Caution

Gold rose 0.27% intraday last Friday, reaching a high of $4,219; however, it has been blocked near the $4,200 level for four consecutive days. From a longer-term perspective, gold is in a sustained uptrend since February 2024, currently constructing the fourth consolidation zone, meaning upward momentum persists but short-term risks are emerging.

Technical analysis shows that gold is consolidating within the $3,890-$4,225 range. If subsequent pullbacks occur, close attention should be paid to whether the Gann 2/1 line at $4,050 can hold, which will determine the depth of short-term declines.

Technical Reference Levels: Support at 4,130, 4,050, 3,930; Resistance at 4,220, 4,300, 4,381

Silver: Continuously Renewing Highs, Sideways Movement Tests Bull-Bear Patience

Silver rose 0.23% intraday last Friday, reaching a high of $58.72. The performance of continuously setting new highs shows no signs of the overall uptrend reversing; however, sustained box consolidation suggests intense competition between bulls and bears, and the possibility of short-term pullbacks cannot be ignored.

The key support level is at $56.50. If silver can stabilize at this level, the market is expected to further rebound and challenge the $60.0 and even $63.50 range. Conversely, if it breaks below $56.50, risks of further probing toward $53.8 and even $51.0 should be guarded against.

Technical Reference Levels: Support at 56.5, 53.5, 50.0; Resistance at 60.0, 63.5, 68.0

USD/JPY: Long-Term Uptrend Line Challenged, Downside Risks Heating Up

USD/JPY rose slightly 0.1% intraday last Friday, reaching a high of 155.54, currently barely stabilizing at the 155.0 level. It is worth noting that USD/JPY is facing a test of its long-term uptrend line, and the AO momentum indicator has begun showing downward signals, suggesting that the market is inclined to weaken further.

If USD/JPY breaks through the crucial 155.0 support, subsequent movements are likely to accelerate downward, further testing the 152.0 and even 150.0 levels. To reverse the downtrend, it needs to recover and firmly establish above 156.0 to confirm.

Technical Reference Levels: Support at 155.0, 152.0, 150.0; Resistance at 157.0, 158.0, 160.0

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