#数字资产行情上升 Bitcoin 1-jam chart implications: Seemingly calm, but undercurrents are surging

After trading for so many years, I've seen countless clues of bull-bear turning points. The hourly chart in front of us is playing out an invisible battle between long and short-side capital——don't be fooled by the "dormant" appearance of Bollinger Band compression. With MACD's DIF and DEA repeatedly adhering below the zero axis, it's often the silent accumulation before market moves.

I'm looking at this from three angles:

**What can technicals tell us?** Price is being firmly suppressed at the BOLL middle band, but here's a detail——trading volume expands during down moves but shrinks during rebounds. This is indeed a weakness signal. However, the MACD histogram is starting to show signs of bullish divergence—price is making new lows but momentum isn't weakening in sync. It feels like the bow is fully drawn and the arrow is about to be released.

**What's the on-chain telling?** Spot exchange net inflow data over the past day shows 32,000 BTC flowing in, while whale addresses are building positions in batches. Retail is panic-selling while institutions are quietly accumulating——this divergence often means a short-term bottom is forming.

**What opportunity is the macro backdrop providing?** The latest Fed meeting minutes hint at not ruling out rate cuts, and Bitcoin spot ETF holdings are also growing against the trend. This suggests that liquidity-tightening expectations are easing, giving crypto assets room to breathe.

**How to trade this?** Market sentiment has reached panic extremes, but smart money is positioning. If price can consolidate at this level for 4-6 hours, once it breaks above the middle band with MACD crossover and volume expansion, a short-term bounce could very well shoot for 92,500. Conversely, if volume breaks down, I should exit decisively.

The core of trading has never been about guessing direction right, but about executing plans and disciplined execution. I've already placed buy orders in batches, waiting for the market to validate this logic. Remember one thing——good rallies often appear at the most desperate moments and continue when everyone is hesitant.

$BTC