方正证券：市場は1月に米連邦準備制度が利下げを行わないと価格付けており、最も早くて6月に利下げが始まる可能性があります
PANews January 10 News: According to Golden Ten, Founder Securities research report stated that the December non-farm data was mixed, with the overall US employment market showing a moderate downward trend, but the unemployment rate showing marginal improvement, giving the Federal Reserve more reasons to observe in January. Combined with the possibility that the Supreme Court may declare IEEPA tariffs unconstitutional, in the short term, this may be bullish for US stocks and the US dollar, but bearish for US Treasuries: data on new jobs added, job vacancy rates, and wage growth rates all indicate that the US employment market in December remains relatively weak, but the marginal decline in unemployment data is one of the few bright spots. From interest rate futures and US Treasury trends, after the data release, the market priced in that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates in January, with the earliest rate cut possibly beginning in June.
At the same time, since the Supreme Court may recently declare IEEPA tariffs unconstitutional, it means economic expectations may improve marginally, inflation pressures weaken, but fiscal deficits intensify. Under the combination of the Federal Reserve not rushing to cut rates + moderating tariffs, short-term US Treasuries face more unfavorable factors, with a higher probability of running at elevated levels.
