#预测市场 Recently I came across Vitalik's discourse on prediction markets, which is quite interesting—he calls prediction markets the "antidote" to social media, and the logic is essentially the constraining power of real money.
This reminds me that the essence of copy trading is exactly the same. On social media, traders may tout their abilities extravagantly, but what truly reflects their capabilities is trading records, stop-loss execution, and risk management—all of which carry economic costs. The cost of lying is too high.
Looking at Polymarket, the probability of BTC breaking 100k within the year is only 10%, and 95k is only 32%, whereas the sentiment in crypto circles these past two weeks has been incredibly euphoric. This contrast is quite revealing. I've fallen into this trap before myself—when chasing rallies, you always feel "it's definitely going up," but when you actually put your own money on the line, your mindset completely changes.
The same logic applies to selecting copy trading targets—look at accounts, not commentary; look at track records, not predictions. Traders who strictly execute stop-losses during downturns and rationally distribute positions during bounces are the ones worth following. Prediction markets and copy trading alike use real economic penalties to filter out noise. That's the right direction.
#预测市场 Recently I came across Vitalik's discourse on prediction markets, which is quite interesting—he calls prediction markets the "antidote" to social media, and the logic is essentially the constraining power of real money.
This reminds me that the essence of copy trading is exactly the same. On social media, traders may tout their abilities extravagantly, but what truly reflects their capabilities is trading records, stop-loss execution, and risk management—all of which carry economic costs. The cost of lying is too high.
Looking at Polymarket, the probability of BTC breaking 100k within the year is only 10%, and 95k is only 32%, whereas the sentiment in crypto circles these past two weeks has been incredibly euphoric. This contrast is quite revealing. I've fallen into this trap before myself—when chasing rallies, you always feel "it's definitely going up," but when you actually put your own money on the line, your mindset completely changes.
The same logic applies to selecting copy trading targets—look at accounts, not commentary; look at track records, not predictions. Traders who strictly execute stop-losses during downturns and rationally distribute positions during bounces are the ones worth following. Prediction markets and copy trading alike use real economic penalties to filter out noise. That's the right direction.