Everyone's waiting for ADP, and honestly, there's no hope for a rate cut anyway. The main thing is just hoping the employment data isn't too bad.
To be frank, crypto has already digested most of the bad news, just waiting for a positive catalyst.
Let's wait for the evening data, there might be a surprise.
Probability of a rate cut around 20%... hmm, that's about what I expected. The Fed is hawkish anyway.
At this price level, crypto's bottom signals are already pretty obvious.
Once the ADP data is released, there might be some volatility, but probably not too intense.
Bit annoyed by these "key data" points - often they don't produce key reactions, instead it's outside factors that stir things up.
As long as employment doesn't drastically deteriorate, we actually have better opportunities. The logic checks out.
夜間のADP雇用統計の発表が間近に迫っており、これは本日市場の重要な注目点です。現時点の予想によると、米連邦準備制度理事会（FRB）が1月に利下げを発表する確率は約2割程度です。
この数字の背後にある論理は実はそれほど複雑ではありません——ADPのデータが雇用市場の大幅な悪化を示さない限り、FRBの姿勢は本質的に変わらないでしょう。言い換えれば、雇用データが極端な状況に陥らない限り、市場の変動範囲は限定的であるべきです。
面白いことに、最近の暗号市場はすでに大部分のネガティブ要因をほぼ消化しています。このような背景の中で、少しでも積極的なシグナルが現れれば、反発の余地と勢いはかなり期待できるでしょう。肝心なのは、その後のデータがどのように展開していくかです。