Recently watching the market closely, you must have felt it too — the crypto market seems to have hit pause, and the bond market is equally calm. Looks like we're finally entering a stable period? Don't rush to breathe a sigh of relief.
After all these years in this market, experiencing countless roller coasters, I have to be honest: the calm we're seeing right now could be even more dangerous than before the LUNA collapse in 2022. What many people haven't noticed is that the MOVE index in the bond market has quietly declined, but what's hidden behind it can catch retail investors completely off guard.
Let me start by explaining what the MOVE index is. Simply put, it's the barometer of risk in the bond market, similar to the VIX in the stock market. When the index drops, many people naturally assume "bonds are stable, time to enter." But if you've been in this circle long enough, you understand that market logic always contradicts intuition. Large capital is best at creating momentum in times like these, luring retail traders into chasing trends.
What's peculiar is this: the MOVE index is indeed declining, yet trading volume in the bond market is quietly rising. Last week's trading volume was 23% higher than the average of the previous two weeks. What does this mean? If the market were truly that stable, why would capital be accelerating in and out? This discrepancy is the signal. Big money is making moves behind the scenes while most people are enjoying the surface-level "calm."
The current situation is like a carefully packaged trap. Calm on the surface, undercurrents flowing beneath. People reducing positions and hedging their risks have already started moving. What about you?
It's the same old playbook again—big money pumps it up, retail investors take the bait. Classic move. Trading volume skyrockets but the index moves the opposite direction—this is definitely a sign something big is brewing. I've already cut my position in half.
Recently watching the market closely, you must have felt it too — the crypto market seems to have hit pause, and the bond market is equally calm. Looks like we're finally entering a stable period? Don't rush to breathe a sigh of relief.
After all these years in this market, experiencing countless roller coasters, I have to be honest: the calm we're seeing right now could be even more dangerous than before the LUNA collapse in 2022. What many people haven't noticed is that the MOVE index in the bond market has quietly declined, but what's hidden behind it can catch retail investors completely off guard.
Let me start by explaining what the MOVE index is. Simply put, it's the barometer of risk in the bond market, similar to the VIX in the stock market. When the index drops, many people naturally assume "bonds are stable, time to enter." But if you've been in this circle long enough, you understand that market logic always contradicts intuition. Large capital is best at creating momentum in times like these, luring retail traders into chasing trends.
What's peculiar is this: the MOVE index is indeed declining, yet trading volume in the bond market is quietly rising. Last week's trading volume was 23% higher than the average of the previous two weeks. What does this mean? If the market were truly that stable, why would capital be accelerating in and out? This discrepancy is the signal. Big money is making moves behind the scenes while most people are enjoying the surface-level "calm."
The current situation is like a carefully packaged trap. Calm on the surface, undercurrents flowing beneath. People reducing positions and hedging their risks have already started moving. What about you?