Before the interest rate decision is announced, Bitcoin's uptrend has temporarily stalled. Yesterday, the overnight short-term price briefly broke through $75,000, then closed below $74,000, ending the previous streak of 8 consecutive days of gains. The current market focus remains on liquidity tightness issues. For example, if multiple central banks adopt tightening or more hawkish rhetoric, and government bond yields rise, the bond market often tends to dominate other markets including cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin may face downward pressure, and recent upward momentum may be lost. Currently, if the benchmark interest rate remains unchanged as market expectations suggest, traders may increasingly focus on policy tone, dot plots, or rhetoric nuances, quickly pricing in expectations for the coming weeks. Possible paths for Bitcoin: 1. If the dot plot suggests two rate cuts, Bitcoin may rise at least 3%, with price potentially consolidating above $75,000. 2. If rates remain unchanged with no clear directional guidance, the market may experience brief profit-taking behavior, causing price pullbacks to retest the $70,000 psychological level. 3. If hawkish rhetoric is severe and simultaneously expresses concern about how rising oil prices impact inflation, signaling no rate cuts this year, Bitcoin may fall back toward the $65,000 region. Technical outlook: Multiple indicators show bullish momentum is weakening, with the market entering a brief neutral phase and short-term consolidation or directional hesitation. Key levels: $78,800 is key structural resistance. If this level is breached, it may trigger a structural shift and establish a stronger bullish pattern for the coming weeks. $70,200 psychological level—since this price coincides with the 50-period moving average, if price cannot move away from this level, most of the market will once again enter a hesitant consolidation phase, limiting the continuation of the uptrend.
0318 Bitcoin Daily Report #美联储利率决议
Before the interest rate decision is announced, Bitcoin's uptrend has temporarily stalled. Yesterday, the overnight short-term price briefly broke through $75,000, then closed below $74,000, ending the previous streak of 8 consecutive days of gains.
The current market focus remains on liquidity tightness issues. For example, if multiple central banks adopt tightening or more hawkish rhetoric, and government bond yields rise, the bond market often tends to dominate other markets including cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin may face downward pressure, and recent upward momentum may be lost. Currently, if the benchmark interest rate remains unchanged as market expectations suggest, traders may increasingly focus on policy tone, dot plots, or rhetoric nuances, quickly pricing in expectations for the coming weeks. Possible paths for Bitcoin: 1. If the dot plot suggests two rate cuts, Bitcoin may rise at least 3%, with price potentially consolidating above $75,000. 2. If rates remain unchanged with no clear directional guidance, the market may experience brief profit-taking behavior, causing price pullbacks to retest the $70,000 psychological level. 3. If hawkish rhetoric is severe and simultaneously expresses concern about how rising oil prices impact inflation, signaling no rate cuts this year, Bitcoin may fall back toward the $65,000 region.
Technical outlook: Multiple indicators show bullish momentum is weakening, with the market entering a brief neutral phase and short-term consolidation or directional hesitation. Key levels: $78,800 is key structural resistance. If this level is breached, it may trigger a structural shift and establish a stronger bullish pattern for the coming weeks. $70,200 psychological level—since this price coincides with the 50-period moving average, if price cannot move away from this level, most of the market will once again enter a hesitant consolidation phase, limiting the continuation of the uptrend.