Is the alt season really here? Behind the macro favourable information and the big pump of Ethereum, experts say we still need to wait for key signals.

Despite Ethereum’s recent strong performance, the Fed’s interest rate cut expectations are rising, and China has introduced economic stimulus policies, creating a macro environment that seems favourable for alts to explode. However, the Chief Business Officer of Deribit pointed out that the real alt season has not yet arrived. The rise of Ethereum has not reached the confirmation threshold, the trading volume of small and medium market capitalization alts is still insufficient, and Bitcoin’s dominance remains high. The market needs to wait for key signals such as the ETH/BTC ratio breaking through, accelerated capital rotation, and the altcoin season index rising to 75 in order to confirm the start of alt season.

[Favourable Information] Gathering: [Fed] and China policies trigger market optimism.

Recently, favourable information has been frequently emerging in the macro environment: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at possible interest rate cuts at the Jackson Hole annual meeting, and China also announced a new round of economic stimulus plans. These policies are widely interpreted as the two major global economies synchronously shifting towards easing, which is expected to inject liquidity into high-risk assets. Jean-David Péquignot, Chief Business Officer of Deribit, believes that the easing of central bank policies will lower the yields on safe assets, driving funds towards cryptocurrencies and other high beta assets, amplifying the liquidity effects in the stock market and boosting speculative demand.

[Ethereum’s strong rise serves as a leading indicator, but is not enough to confirm alt season]

Ethereum surged significantly after Powell’s speech, with ongoing inflows into spot ETFs indicating a recovery in investor risk appetite. Péquignot pointed out that the ETH/BTC ratio is usually an important leading indicator—when Bitcoin underperforms and investors seek higher-risk crypto assets, an increase in this ratio may trigger market FOMO and create a spillover effect. However, the current rise of Ethereum has still not reached the threshold to confirm the alt season.

[Key Indicators Not Met: Bitcoin Dominance Still High, Altcoin Index Relatively Low]

The true alt season requires small and mid-cap tokens to generally outperform Bitcoin, but several current data points have not met this condition. The CoinMarketAltcoin Season Index currently stands at 44/100, far below the critical value of 75; Bitcoin’s dominance rate remains at a five-year high of 58%, indicating that institutional capital allocation is still concentrated in BTC. Péquignot emphasizes that many small and mid-cap altcoins have lagged in their rise or are consolidating sideways, and the market lacks a broad trend of alts outperforming.

[Essential Conditions and Potential Risks for the Start of Alt Season]

Péquignot proposed that to confirm alt season, four major signals must be simultaneously met: the ETH/BTC ratio continuously breaking through, a significant decline in Bitcoin’s dominance, the altcoin season index approaching 75, and on-chain activities along with social media heat reflecting a large inflow of retail funds. However, even with a positive macro outlook, the market still faces significant risks: if inflation rebounds and forces the central bank to delay easing, it could reverse the trend of risk assets; additionally, high leverage operations and speculative narratives could trigger large-scale liquidations, shortening the alt season cycle; the uncertainty of U.S. trade tariff policies also continues to suppress market sentiment.

[Conclusion: The market is in a consolidation phase, and investors need to remain patient]

Although macro Favourable Information and the rise of Ethereum have set the stage for alt season, key indicators have not yet fully aligned, and the market still needs to wait for clearer signals of fund rotation. Investors should pay attention to the ETH/BTC ratio, Bitcoin dominance, and changes in the altcoin index, avoiding exposure to risks due to excessive leverage or chasing highs. Before the true alt season is confirmed, a cautious approach to laying out tokens with strong fundamentals and liquidity may be a more prudent strategy.