Bitcoin's dominance has fallen below 60%, is alt season approaching? Analysts say the ETH and SOL ecosystems may lead the next bull run.

As Bitcoin's dominance falls below 60%, the crypto market has entered a new phase, sparking speculation about the upcoming “altcoin season.” Experts point out that the two major ecosystems, Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), are most likely to benefit from capital rotation due to their strong network activity and increasing institutional interest. While some alts have performed well in August, analysts warn that history is not a guarantee, and market trends still depend on macro events in September and Bitcoin's price performance.

Bitcoin's Dominance Declines, Signaling a New Stage for the Market

After experiencing a strong rise in certain periods of July and August, the altcoin market is currently in a wait-and-see mode. Despite a recent pullback, the price of Ethereum (ETH) remains above 4,100 USD, while Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below the 110,000 USD mark. According to TradingView data, Bitcoin's dominance has decreased from 66% at the beginning of August to below 60%. Many analysts believe that a true “altcoin season” will only begin once this indicator falls below 50%.

But the question is whether this cycle will replicate history, or if the market narrative has changed. Crypto experts are cautiously optimistic about this. Stabolut CEO and founder Eneko Knorr believes that while the stage for the altcoin season has been set, history is merely a guide, not a guarantee. He pointed out that with the arrival of spot ETFs, banks entering the space, and real-world applications being implemented, the foundation of the entire crypto market is more solid than ever. MEXC Ventures investment director Leo Zhao also stated that if Bitcoin continues to consolidate, September could become a turning point for alts to shine, as the market foundation is being laid for a stronger and more diversified cycle.

Ethereum and Solana ecosystems lead alts

Experts generally believe that in the potential capital rotation, Ethereum and Solana are in the best position.

Eneko Knorr pointed out that Ethereum remains the top choice for institutional capital, as most tokenization activities are conducted on its platform, making it a powerful magnet for attracting long-term capital. Meanwhile, Solana has become the “silver medalist” in the Layer-1 space, with its fast network, active ecosystem, and appeal to developers and users, making it an essential asset for serious investors.

In August, the tokens within the Solana ecosystem performed particularly well. Among the projects with high market capitalization, Raydium (RAY) and Marinade (MNDE) rose by 31.5% and 40.2%, respectively. These projects are closely related to liquidity staking and DEX trading on Solana, reflecting strong investor interest in the ecosystem.

At the same time, the Ethereum ecosystem is also attracting long-term capital. Projects like Lido (LDO) and Aave (AAVE) have achieved a robust rise of 30.4% and 25.3%, respectively. Emerging projects such as Ethena (ENA) have also garnered attention, with its price skyrocketing from 0.23 USD to 0.83 USD throughout August, an increase of over 260%, although there was a pullback at the end of August. Leo Zhao believes that projects like Ethena reflect a broader shift in the market towards 'real-world applications,' and are expected to gain extraordinary attention during the altcoin season.

Key Events and Market Outlook for September

September is a month filled with mixed signals, and the market will face several key events:

• September 2: Ethena (ENA) will unlock 40.63 million ENA tokens, which may affect its price fluctuations.
• September 3: Ondo (ONDO) expands its business into the U.S. market, marking an important milestone for its tokenized securities platform.
• September 11: XRP Ledger will host the “Future of On-Chain Finance” event to discuss innovations in DeFi and XRPL.
• September 28: Jupiter (JUP) will unlock 53.47 million JUP tokens, accounting for approximately 1.75% of its circulating supply, which may affect short-term price trends.
• Before September 30: Starknet (STKR) is expected to launch Bitcoin staking functionality, providing sustainable rewards and enhancing security.

Ultimately, whether September can become a breakthrough month for alts will depend on how the market responds to these events. Despite Bitcoin's declining dominance and the strong performance of the Ethereum and Solana ecosystems, history is not a guarantee. Investors need to remain selective and closely monitor key support levels. If Bitcoin continues to consolidate and macro data remains neutral, alts may become the focus of the market.