What Is Happening with Bitcoin Institutional Holdings? Why Has BTC Dropped Below $100K?

Institutional demand for Bitcoin (BTC) has indeed surged over the past two years, driven by greater regulatory clarity—particularly in the U.S. with spot ETF approvals—and its perceived role as an inflation hedge amid macroeconomic shifts.

As of late 2025, major entities including ETFs, public companies, private firms, and governments collectively hold significant portions of BTC supply, though estimates vary around 3-4 million BTC for non-exchange institutional holders. Meanwhile, Bitcoin supply on centralized exchanges has declined to historically low levels below 3 million BTC, reflecting a shift toward long-term holding. Yet, as of December 15, 2025, BTC trades around $88,000–$90,000—down from its October peak near $126,000—highlighting how price action remains influenced by broader liquidity conditions rather than holdings alone. For crypto investors exploring blockchain trends, wallet security, and Bitcoin’s maturation in 2025, this dynamic underscores a market increasingly tied to macro factors.

What Are the Latest Bitcoin Holdings by Major Entities?

Institutional and corporate Bitcoin accumulation has accelerated in 2025, with spot ETFs leading the charge followed by public company treasuries. Data from sources like BitcoinTreasuries.net and Arkham Intelligence show ETFs holding approximately 1.3–1.4 million BTC (around 6–7% of total supply), while public companies hold 800,000–1 million BTC (4–5%). Combined with private firms, governments, and other custodians, major non-exchange entities control roughly 3–4 million BTC, or 15–20% of circulating supply. Leading holders include BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (~800,000 BTC) and MicroStrategy (~600,000–650,000 BTC).

• ETFs Dominant: ~1.35–1.4 million BTC across U.S. spot products, per mid-2025 reports.
• Public Companies: ~850,000–1 million BTC, led by MicroStrategy and miners like Marathon.
• Total Institutional: Estimates range 3.3–3.7 million BTC including broader categories.
• Exchange Shift: Holdings moved off exchanges to cold storage/ETFs for long-term custody.
• Supply Percentage: Represents structural demand absorbing new issuance.

Why Has Bitcoin Supply on Exchanges Diminished?

On-chain data indicates Bitcoin balances on centralized exchanges have fallen sharply over the past two years, hovering below 3 million BTC—near multi-year lows. This reflects investors withdrawing to self-custody, ETFs, or corporate treasuries, reducing available sell pressure and signaling HODL behavior. Glassnode and similar analytics highlight this as a bullish supply shock, with illiquid supply rising amid institutional inflows.

• Exchange Balances: Below 3 million BTC, down significantly since 2023 peaks.
• Withdrawal Trend: Driven by ETF custody and treasury strategies.
• Illiquid Supply Growth: Long-term holders locking up coins.
• No True Shock Yet: Some analyses note ETF holdings offset exchange declines.
• Security Implication: Encourages self-custody and robust wallet practices.

Why Is Bitcoin Still Below $100K Despite Strong Institutional Holdings?

While holdings demonstrate conviction, Bitcoin’s price in December 2025 has retreated below $100K (trading ~$88,000–$92,000) due to macro liquidity constraints and slowed inflows. After October’s all-time high near $126K, ETF outflows, reduced leverage, and cautious Fed signals (paused rate cuts) triggered consolidation. Analysts note institutional deployment is methodical, not euphoric, leading to range-bound action rather than parabolic gains.

• Liquidity Tightening: Global M2 slowdown and mixed Fed dovishness curb risk appetite.
• ETF Outflows: Sharp redemptions in November–December amid profit-taking.
• Macro Correlation: BTC tracks equities/AI stocks, hit by valuation concerns.
• Leverage Flush: October liquidations removed excess speculation.
• Cycle Maturation: Slower, institution-led gains vs. past retail-driven surges.

Key Factors Influencing Bitcoin Price in Late 2025

Emerging Trends in Bitcoin Ownership and Price Dynamics

As 2025 ends, Bitcoin’s ownership skews toward institutions (15–20%+ of supply), enhancing legitimacy but tying price more to macro cycles than halving narratives. Exchange supply lows support scarcity, yet liquidity remains key for breakouts. For blockchain participants, this emphasizes diversified exposure and secure custody amid volatility.

• Institution-Led Cycle: Slower but sustainable upside potential.
• Supply Shock Building: Illiquid holdings rise with treasuries/ETFs.
• Macro Sensitivity: Fed signals and global liquidity as primary drivers.
• HODL Prevalence: Reduced exchange balances signal conviction.
• 2026 Outlook: Potential resurgence with easing or renewed inflows.

In summary, major entities hold approximately 3–6 million BTC across categories as of late 2025—nearly 30% when including broader centralized holdings—with exchange supply below 3 million reflecting strong accumulation. However, BTC’s dip below $100K stems from tightened liquidity, ETF outflows, and macro caution rather than weakened demand. This maturation phase favors patient holders, with structural supports intact. Track on-chain metrics via Glassnode, monitor ETF flows, and prioritize self-custody wallets—focusing on education and compliant strategies in your Bitcoin journey.