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Economic Data Report (Pre-release): U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate
Non-Farm Payrolls Interpretation Scenarios
Actual > Consensus & Forecast → Positive/Bullish for DXY, Negative/Bearish for BTC.
Actual = Consensus & Forecast → Neutral for DXY and BTC.
Actual < Consensus & Forecast → Negative/Bearish for DXY, Positive/Bullish for BTC.
The Unemployment Rate interpretation follows the opposite logic of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP).
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1. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
Definition
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) measure the number of new jobs (excluding the agricultural sector) added in a month.
Preliminary Analysis & Interpretation
Consensus (135K), Forecast (100K) < Previous (151K).
Indicates a weakening U.S. labor market.
Could strengthen speculation that the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance (potential rate cuts sooner than expected).
Potential Impact on DXY & BTC
DXY: Negative/Bearish.
BTC: Positive/Bullish.
Final Thought
Higher-than-expected NFP → Strong economy → Fed may stay hawkish → Bullish DXY, Bearish BTC.
Lower-than-expected NFP → Weakening economy → Fed may turn dovish → Bearish DXY, Bullish BTC.
---
2. Unemployment Rate
Definition
The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking jobs.
Preliminary Analysis & Interpretation
Consensus (4.1%), Forecast (4.2%) ≥ Previous (4.1%).
Suggests a stable labor market.
A rise to 4.2% could increase the likelihood of rate cuts.
Potential Impact on DXY & BTC
DXY: Neutral - Bearish.
BTC: Neutral - Bullish.
Final Thought
Unemployment Rate ≥ 4.2% → Weakening economy → Fed may turn dovish → Bearish DXY, Bullish BTC.
Unemployment Rate < 4.1% → Strong economy → Fed may stay hawkish → Bullish DXY, Bearish BTC.
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