Finally have time to sit down and chat with everyone about the recent tense atmosphere (Part 2)

Let’s continue from the last update. The reason I haven’t been paying much attention to the market is that I’ve been busy with company matters. The data that came out in October was much worse than expected. Right now, running a physical restaurant business feels much harder than playing in the crypto space. The anxiety that business brings me is much greater than crypto.

Actually, in our space, short-term volatility and long periods of sideways movement are normal. Sticking to long-term value investing is the key. As long as the fundamental logic behind your coin selection isn’t too far off, the annualized returns are generally predictable.

But BTC has to be the main line; altcoins will always just reflect your personal risk preference.

When I was sitting at my computer in the evening writing this update, I saw Boss Zhao post a few X’s. Looks like he’s trying to encourage everyone not to lose hope again. Zhao the Sickle’s self-talk every time he gets trapped buying coins indirectly proves that even crypto OGs probably find it hard to time the market precisely. He’s bought BTC, called on everyone to accumulate certain coins, and over just a few years, those coins have indeed dropped, but the returns are also tangible. You may not like the guy, but you have to admit that when it comes to recommending coins, he hasn’t really acted like a sickle. Now he’s backing Aster again—do you dare to get in?

Personally, I don’t dare at the moment, but I’ll spend some time researching. If funds allow, buying a little and holding it wouldn’t hurt. I mentioned during a livestream that for altcoins I don’t fully understand, even if I want to speculate, I won’t put more than 50,000 yuan in principal anymore.

First, it’s hard for me to believe in the myth that altcoins can make you rich. Second, according to probability theory, if you invest in 3-4 altcoins and set a stop loss at 50%, as long as one doubles, you can net a 12.5% profit. If one goes 6x, your principal more than doubles. If one goes 10x, your principal more than triples.

This method may be a bit clumsy, but it allows you to steadily enjoy the thrill of making money. By the same logic, you can shrink the capital to 5,000 and spread it across meme coins or early-stage market microcaps.

Does this kind of spot altcoin play really offer a high probability of profit?

Some top altcoins are worth accumulating during a bear market, and certain hot meme coins can be laid out during a bull market. But talking about these now is not so meaningful. As some friends have commented before, wanting to buy GT, OKB, or other coins to accumulate now is probably mistimed. Generally, coins that have already pumped won’t pump again so easily, unless you’re willing to wait a while and really don’t need the money.

Moreover, the method I described goes against human nature, and very few people can actually use it. Most people come to crypto aiming for quick riches. If you tell newcomers about 5x, 10x gains, many won’t even care. So a lot of spot traders eventually start dabbling in leverage, and even though they claim to have their own trading systems, they still get wrecked by unpredictable black swan events and that universal human greed.

Most of our current pain comes from altcoin returns not meeting expectations, and according to traditional bull-bear cycle theory, the time to exit at the top is here. It’s been predicted that at the slightest downward market movement, retail investors would panic and dump their holdings in succession—this is the resonance effect brought by the 4-year market top consensus.

Looking back now, the main force seems to have achieved its goal, with the fear index down to 21. There have been fewer than 15 days of extreme fear throughout the year.

Analyzing the dump from retail investors, on one hand, it’s from long-term holders who don’t want to lose at the top, and on the other, from newcomers who chased the rally in the second half of the year. On-chain data shows these two groups account for about 40%. I keep wondering, who’s picking up these coins? Most likely, it’s experienced holders and some institutions.

Many people have commented asking if their altcoins still have hope. I honestly don’t know how to answer. Even ETH looks terrible in this round. I’m scared of this altcoin cycle myself—if I hadn’t cut my losses quickly, I’d be hurting right now.

In my own analysis system, there’s a relatively simple way to tell: compare the current price of your coins to the price on November 5 last year.

If your coin’s price is still above last year’s price, it’s basically supported by faith-driven capital. These coins either have some real ecosystem value or solid community consensus, like ETH/ADA/DOGE/LINK/AVAX and other mainstream altcoins. Even though their K-lines don’t look too optimistic, considering policy factors, there may be something to look forward to, but it’s still like picking pennies among junk—pretty high risk.

That’s why I keep emphasizing: holding coins isn’t about blind optimism or using mental tricks to fool yourself—it’s about looking at the chips in your hand and asking, from fundamentals, news, and technicals, is there still a chance for a pump?

If you’ve thought it through rationally and believe so, then hold on. If you’re convinced in the value and still have capital, you can even add a bit.

As for coins below last year’s price, like those that were hot at some point—APE, FIL, DOT, SHIB, ORDI, WLD, etc.—is there still hope? I think if you look at the K-line and daily trading volume data, you’ll have your answer. I’ll leave that for you to judge yourself.

From this perspective, the explosive altcoin bull market we’re all waiting for has really never come; in fact, many coins have remained in a bear trend, with occasional pump-and-dump moves to trap newcomers. This isn’t a new phenomenon. So for many people, it’s not really meaningful to argue about whether it’s a bull or bear market.

After nearly two years of this back-and-forth, I believe many people are genuinely numb, or have even closed their apps and left the market. So if you’re still here, still have the mood to read updates and vent, whether your account is up or down, you’ve already beaten 60% of players. At the very least, after enduring for so long, your resilience and trading skills are still relatively healthy.

I still don’t think this is the start of a bear market. If you share this view, then prepare your trading strategy and build up your mindset. News will have a big impact on price movements in the near future. As long as you keep your account flexible, at worst you’ll have wasted a year.

There’s definitely pain in this process. We’re all just regular people—who doesn’t want to make some money for the new year? Give yourself a little confidence. Maybe today’s melancholy will make tomorrow’s happiness all the more precious. #今日你看涨还是看跌？