#美国就业数据表现强劲超出预期 【Japan's Rate Hike Begins, The Era of Global Carry Trades Might Truly Be Over】

Many people are paying attention to the interest rate figures themselves, but they miss the key point—what does Japan's rate hike mean? It's not just a shift in monetary policy, but potentially the end of the entire "cheap money" era.

The most direct impact comes from the reversal of carry trade strategies. The yen has been the world's "cash machine" for years, with borrowing costs extremely low. Once the rate hike is implemented and borrowing costs rise, what will players who rely on low-interest financing to bet on high-yield assets do? Trillions of capital will start to withdraw, all flowing back to Japan in search of safer returns.

In this process, high-valuation assets will be the first to suffer—tech stocks and emerging markets are all vulnerable. But this won't be an instant crash; rather, it will be a slow "bleeding out." The value of cash will become more apparent day by day, and assets with steady dividends and strong defensiveness will become everyone's safe haven.

From an asset rotation perspective, the impact chain looks like this: first, cryptocurrencies come under pressure, then the impact spreads to U.S. stocks, with Hong Kong stocks being the most sensitive and thus the most volatile, while A-shares are relatively less affected.

The tone in the crypto world is: prioritize defense, prepare for tight liquidity. Trading volume is likely to shrink, and the style will be extremely conservative.