#以太坊行情解读 The Bank of Japan has shifted from ultra-loose monetary policy to tightening, becoming the biggest systemic risk in the crypto market over the past two years.

In March last year, the Bank of Japan announced the end of its 8-year negative interest rate policy, raising the policy rate from -0.1% to the 0~0.1% range. The market could still digest this at the time, but Ethereum still dropped 5-10% in response, sending a signal — even the slightest signs of tightening overseas liquidity can transmit to the crypto world.

The real shock came on July 31. The rate was raised by 25 basis points to 0.25%, and simultaneously, a plan to shrink the balance sheet was announced. This unexpectedly aggressive move directly triggered a global risk asset sell-off. Ethereum plummeted from around $3,300 to about $2,100 within days, a decline of over one-third. Bitcoin, while relatively resilient, also faced significant pressure. After that, everyone realized — this policy shift by the Bank of Japan is not a bluff.

On January 24 this year, the Bank of Japan continued to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.5%. Subsequently, Ethereum experienced six to eight consecutive days of downward trading, with a total decline of about 30% in a week, and Bitcoin fell 31% during the same period. The bearish trend for $BTC and $ETH basically occurred simultaneously.

The underlying logic is quite straightforward: Yen appreciation means the arbitrage space for borrowing in Yen to short and profit is shrinking, forcing large positions that borrow Yen to invest in high-risk assets (including cryptocurrencies) to close. Capital flows out of the crypto market like a tide — that’s how it is.

As of mid-December, the policy rate remained at 0.5%. The market generally expects the upcoming meeting to raise rates again to 0.75%, which would be a 30-year high. Currently, Ethereum has already fallen below $3,000, and Bitcoin has retreated to around $80,000. Each rate hike almost always comes with a 20-35% correction. In the short term, this volatility is likely to continue, and close attention should be paid to the interplay between the yen exchange rate and the tightening of global liquidity.