As of December 21 at 18:00, the cryptocurrency market has shown short-term favourable information emerging over the past three days, but the overall sentiment remains cautious, with a pattern of initial suppression followed by a rise, primarily characterized by fluctuations and repairs.

1. Core Conclusion

- 12.18-19: Favourable Information is dominant. BTC dipped to 84418 USD, ETH fell below 3000 USD, and widespread liquidations occurred across the network, with the fear index entering "fear". The main reasons are the uncertainty before the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike and the liquidation of long leveraged positions.
- 12.20: Favourable Information drives a rebound. The Fed's RMP proposal (interpreted as a form of QE) and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike (bad news fully priced in) led BTC to briefly break above $89,000, ETH to return to $3,000, and mainstream coins surged.
- 12.21 (as of now): Fluctuating digestion. The total market capitalization slightly dropped by about 1.49%, BTC fell back to the range of 87000-88000 USD, sentiment remains in extreme fear, lacking sustained buying pressure, and the resistance at the 90,000 mark is significant.

2. Key Drivers and Risks

- Favourable Information: The Federal Reserve's RMP plan improves expectations for institutional access; institutional funds continue to flow into Bitcoin ETFs (such as BlackRock's IBIT); ETH whales increase holdings and staking.
- Unfavourable Information: $90,000+ strong resistance; repeated liquidation of leveraged long positions; tightening liquidity at year-end; geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties remain.

3. Operations and Emotional Prompts

- Short-term: Focused on oscillation repair, pay attention to support at 87000 USD (BTC) and 2900 USD (ETH), with 90000/3000 USD as a strong and weak dividing line, and strictly control leverage.
- Medium to long term: Policies and institutional favourable information are biased towards the medium to long term, while the short term may be volatile, waiting for liquidity and sentiment to resonate.