Still making trading decisions based on candlestick charts? I have to tell you honestly, this approach is already outdated in the crypto market. Those seemingly regular charts are actually the result of capital battles. To survive in this market, the key is to understand who actually holds the chips—this is the real rule of the game.

Over the years, I've seen too many retail investors suffer heavy losses because they blindly trust technical analysis. They get excited when resistance levels are broken, panic when support levels are breached, but they fail to realize a fundamental fact: the true direction of the market is always dominated by large funds. Take ETH as an example, why does this coin always get stuck around the $4000 mark? The logic behind it is actually quite straightforward.

I've uncovered some valuable insights from on-chain data. Those who bought ETH 5 to 7 years ago have an average cost of only $378; even earlier investors paid an even lower price. For these whales, once ETH rises to $4000, their profit margin exceeds 10 times. At this point, cashing out is the most reasonable choice. Historical data shows that last March, June, and also September and October this year, whenever ETH hit $4000, these whales started to realize profits—selling amounts ranged from $600 million to $1 billion in a single day, and then ETH would correct accordingly. This is not coincidence; it’s a pattern.

Some may wonder, if whales keep selling, who is buying? Here’s where it gets interesting. Starting from May 2024, large institutional funds have been gradually entering the market. On-chain wallet data can reveal many insights...