#预测市场发展 The cycle of Space's token public sale has started again with the same old tricks: lofty fundraising backgrounds, shiny team resumes, intricate mechanism designs... But I must say, none of these are the factors that determine the project's life or death.

Everyone has heard the story of UFO — thriving in 2021 with a peak market cap of 1.5 billion, and now? Back then, the "distribution capability" and "community consensus" were impressive, but time ultimately provided the answer. Space inherits UFO's team and adopts the same narrative framework, which itself warrants caution.

Careful examination of this mechanism: 50% buyback and burn sounds good, but this is just a basic promise — the key is whether there is real user volume and trading activity to support this flywheel. The liquidity challenge inherent in prediction markets is evident; can the appeal of 10x leverage and zero Maker fee translate into sustained real trading? Or is it another cycle relying on incentivizing users through airdrops and attracting speculation?

What I worry about most is the "quota and refund" rule — oversubscription at 1360% sounds crazy, but such heat is often the most dangerous signal. The higher the early participation level and the more rights you get, the more it reinforces the FOMO mentality. Don't be fooled by "lifetime rights"; the permanent promises on-chain are the least resilient to tests.

If you really want to participate, first ask yourself three questions: 1. Will you trade on this platform long-term, or just seek quick gains from new listings? 2. Have you looked at the actual daily active users and trading volume data of this project? 3. Can you accept that this money might be lost?

Only if you can answer honestly should you consider taking action.