Prediction markets are the biggest espionage intelligence platform, and human development of prediction markets is still less than 1%.

The screenshot shows an insider address related to the US military's capture of the Venezuelan president. One day before the operation, this newly created address placed bets on a series of related events, ultimately earning $400,000.

This is not about the insider address itself, but about how prediction markets could potentially become an intelligence bounty platform.

For example, the Venezuelan president bets $1 million that he will not be captured within January, then monitors price movements on Polymarket. If a large buy-in of YES occurs without warning, it’s highly likely that his location has been exposed.

This is equivalent to offering a $1 million bounty for intelligence. The person providing the information could be a delivery person, a restaurant waiter who overheard something, or an internal staff member. There are no middlemen or need for pre-placed wires; it just requires offering a reward.

Inspired by the idea that prediction markets could serve as a delivery platform, you could bet that you won’t get KFC for $10 before noon, and the delivery person could deliver KFC to you before noon, then bet YES.