ETF weekly inflow of $459 million, the triple drivers behind Bitcoin's $90,000 resistance and breakthrough

Bitcoin’s return to $90,000 is no coincidence. The breakthrough of this key level results from the combined forces of capital inflows into spot ETFs, institutional confidence restoration, and macro liquidity improvement. In the week ending January 2nd, US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $459 million, breaking the previous two weeks of outflows and becoming the core driver of the price rebound. Currently, Bitcoin is priced at $91,313.75, with a market capitalization of $1.82 trillion, accounting for 58.61% of the entire crypto market.

Signal of “Unblocking” Institutional Funds

From a capital structure perspective, leading institutional products have become the main drivers of this rebound. The iShares Bitcoin Trust under BlackRock and Fidelity’s FBTC recorded net inflows of several hundred million dollars, with a single-day maximum inflow of $471 million. This scale of institutional capital inflow directly improves Bitcoin’s supply and demand dynamics.

Why are institutions buying again at this point?

Looking at the timeline, Bitcoin experienced a significant correction by the end of 2025 — retreating about 30% from the all-time high of nearly $126,000 in early October, ending the year down 6%. After such a sharp decline, institutional investors began reassessing Bitcoin’s medium- and short-term value. The influx of funds at the start of the new year reflects institutional confirmation of the market bottom and confidence in a subsequent rebound.

Market Sentiment “Extreme Fear” Paradox

Interestingly, despite the obvious price rebound, the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index remains in the “Extreme Fear” zone. What does this divergence between sentiment and price usually indicate?

From a technical perspective, such divergence often signals room for further correction after a phase of overselling. In other words, when the market is still in extreme fear but prices have already started to rebound, it often indicates that real capital has quietly begun to shift. Large-scale buying by institutional investors is the most direct evidence of this shift.

Invisible Support from Macro and Regulatory Factors

Besides capital flows, Bitcoin’s steady hold above $90,000 is also supported by several macro factors:

• Japanese Yen Arbitrage Risk Easing: Recently, the 10-year Japanese government bond yield has fallen from high levels, and USD/JPY has weakened, alleviating concerns about yen arbitrage unwinding, which is positive for risk asset inflows.
• Fed Rate Cut Expectations: The market still anticipates a rate cut in March, which has boosted risk appetite for crypto assets.
• Regulatory Favorability: US legislative efforts to advance the crypto market structure law have increased market expectations for compliance and long-term institutional participation.

These factors collectively improve the global liquidity environment, making Bitcoin, as a risk asset, a natural beneficiary of capital inflows.

Technical Support and Risks

In the short term, as long as the $90,000 support level is not effectively broken, Bitcoin’s short-term target could rise to $95,000, with a medium-term focus on the psychological threshold of $100,000. However, it is important to note that Bitcoin is still oscillating below key moving averages, indicating that while the rebound has begun, a complete upward trend has yet to be established.

Conversely, if macro policies unexpectedly change or ETF capital weakens again, there remains a risk of price retracement to the $80,000 range.

Summary

The significance of Bitcoin breaking through $90,000 lies not in the price itself but in reflecting a shift in market sentiment. The $459 million weekly net inflow of institutional funds indicates that professional investors have begun to position themselves. The improvement in macro liquidity and positive regulatory signals provide room for medium-term outlooks.

The key question is: can this rebound evolve into a genuine trend reversal, or is it merely a technical rebound within a downtrend? Future focus should be on the sustainability of ETF capital inflows, macro policy changes, and whether Bitcoin can effectively break through the psychological barrier of $100,000.