RIVER contract showed a significant change in open interest yesterday. It surged from 2.6M in the morning to a peak of 45.3M, and is currently stable around 37.9M. The sharp rise around 15:10 during midday saw many funds entering the market, but then some traders closed or reduced their positions, indicating a clear rhythm of inflows and outflows.

Looking at the movements of large traders is even more interesting. Based on account numbers, the long-short ratio dropped from 0.43 to 0.41; based on open interest, this ratio decreased from 0.85 to 0.78. In simple terms, large short positions are increasing their holdings, while confidence among long traders is waning. The overall long-short ratio among traders also fell from 0.52 to 0.47, indicating growing market caution.

The half-hour period from 15:50 to 16:20 is critical, as active selling clearly outweighed buying, with many traders rushing to realize profits. From the basis spread perspective, the contract price is converging toward the index price—rising from -0.543 to -0.086—showing that the previous irrational sentiment is gradually cooling down.

The most noteworthy is the ratio of open interest to market capitalization, which declined from 13.769% to 13.092%. This suggests that the growth rate of open interest is not keeping pace with the increase in market value, indicating the market may be entering a consolidation phase. Considering all indicators, although prices have risen, the underlying bullish support is weakening, and bearish forces are gathering. There is a high probability of a short-term correction or range-bound movement, so close attention should be paid to changes in open interest and capital flows.