#比特币价格与估值 Seeing Arthur Hayes's remarks, what flashed through my mind was the 2020 cycle.

At that time, the Federal Reserve launched unlimited quantitative easing, and the market was filled with voices of "all-time highs," with Bitcoin soaring from $3,700. Many people asked me whether to go all-in, and my answer was: first, watch the Federal Reserve's true intentions. RMP and QE may appear different on the surface, but their core logic is the same—both are about releasing liquidity to hedge risks. Hayes has grasped this point correctly.

But there's a historical detail worth recalling: each real quantitative easing cycle has never elicited a linear response from Bitcoin. After the crash in March 2020, there was subsequent growth. The 2017 rally also experienced multiple 20-30% pullbacks. I have no objection to the figure of $124,000, but if you think it can be reached in a straight line, you're being too naive.

What's more interesting is that Hayes, while bullish, also transferred 508 ETH to Galaxy Digital. This detail is crucial—the true positions of influential figures are often more honest than their public statements. What does this indicate? It suggests that even he is preparing for possible profit-taking.

Having experienced the 4,000-fold increase in 2013, the cycle top in 2017, and the crash in 2022, the most important lesson I’ve learned is: before any "all-time high" story, ask yourself where the risks are in this cycle. Liquidity release is indeed beneficial, but the risks of dollar depreciation expectations and stock-bond correlations coexist. The bottom may really be higher than the previous cycle, but the certainty of the top is never that strong.