2026-01-04 18:22:22

This week is about to change the weather. The two major economies, China and the US, are simultaneously releasing economic data, and market expectations for rate cuts are fluctuating wildly.

From Monday to Wednesday, global PMI and US non-farm payroll data will be the first to give early signals. Meanwhile, the South Korean president is visiting China with tech giants like Samsung and SK, which implicitly signals geopolitical trade dynamics that could directly impact the valuation framework of semiconductor-related assets. But the real showdown will happen this Friday—when China’s CPI/PPI and US non-farm payroll data are released simultaneously. These figures will determine the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate cut pace. Currently, market expectations for a rate cut by the Fed in January have halved from 30% to 15%. If the data exceeds expectations, this probability will continue to fluctuate.

With such high macro uncertainty, what are the smart money doing? The answer is straightforward—consolidating into hard assets like BTC and ETH. As the consensus backbone of the crypto market, Bitcoin and Ethereum are most likely to be favored by institutions and large investors during periods of uncertain liquidity. What about theme coins and small-cap tokens? They are temporarily out of favor, as no one wants to get caught in a liquidity trap at this moment.

If you’re considering adjusting your positions, these two data points are worth close attention: once the US unemployment rate drops below 3.9%, expectations for rate cuts will reignite, and undervalued blue-chip coins may rebound. Conversely, if China’s CPI month-over-month rises by more than 0.5%, it signals a recovery in domestic demand, which could trigger movements in related concept sectors. Operationally, it’s recommended to take a light position for swing trading and avoid chasing highs.

Risks are always present, and trading digital assets requires caution. What’s your judgment? After the super week data lands, will the rate cut benefits first ignite BTC or trigger a surge in small-cap coins?

BTC1,55%

ETH0,31%

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MEVHunterWang

· 2h ago

It's time to eat data again, really every day is thrilling and exciting. Just hold tight to BTC, playing with small coins now is just asking for death. --- This Friday is the real battlefield, with CPI and non-farm payroll data coming out together, so volatility is inevitable. --- The probability of rate cuts has been cut from 30% directly to 15%. I just want to know how outrageous the data needs to be to cut it in half again. --- During South Korea's visit to China, it feels like there are many undercurrents; semiconductor re-pricing might be happening. --- Smart money has already moved into BTC and ETH, so what are retail investors supposed to do? Shivering in fear. --- Unemployment rate drops below 3.9%, and rate cuts start to heat up. How do you see this probability? It doesn't seem that easy. --- Entering with a small position for swing profits sounds simple, but in practice, it's just chasing highs and getting trapped. Nobody can get this rhythm right. --- The only sign of domestic demand recovery is CPI exceeding 0.5%, which is a bit harsh. How good does the data need to be? --- Theme coins and small tokens are being neglected, indicating everyone is scared. This is the most authentic market sentiment. --- Betting on rate cut benefits—whether BTC or small coins—boils down to gambling on risk appetite. Better not to gamble at all; just stay steady.

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TheShibaWhisperer

· 19h ago

It's the same old story again, smart money is flocking to BTC and ETH... I think it's just because liquidity is too poor, there's nowhere to go. Small-cap coins are indeed risky, but isn't the real opportunity right here? It all depends on how brave you are.

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GasFeeTherapist

· 19h ago

See the truth this Friday, I bet BTC is stable --- Another week of drama, the rate cut expectation dropped from 30% to 15%, this fluctuation is incredible --- Smart money is holding BTC and ETH, let's just follow and hold --- Small altcoins are indeed a trap at this time, anyone who ventures into the liquidity trap will die --- Will the unemployment rate breaking 3.9% really reverse? The data feels more and more confusing --- Light positions for swing trading are the way to go, don’t be fooled by short-term data into chasing highs --- CPI over 0.5% and domestic demand recovery? Then I need to re-examine the tech sector --- Every time I hear "smart money," I just laugh. What kind of smart money are we talking about? --- The decisive point this Friday, my positions are already prepared --- The South Korean president’s visit implies geopolitical signals; if possible, avoid this minefield --- Honestly, there are only two endings: either BTC skyrockets or gets deeply trapped, no middle ground --- When liquidity direction is uncertain, holding solid assets is the right move; I agree with this logic

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ImpermanentLossFan

· 19h ago

It's another super week. Just hearing this word gives me a headache. Every time they say the market is about to change, but it's always the same old routine. The only ones truly moving are those two old brothers, BTC and ETH. I really don't dare to touch other coins; the risk is ridiculously high. I need to keep a close eye on the unemployment rate data. I feel this week will be interesting. The idea of consolidating into hard assets isn't wrong. It's better not to touch small-cap coins right now. Let's wait for the data on Friday. Anyway, I've already reduced my positions in this wave.

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GateUser-7b078580

· 19h ago

Data shows that this kind of fluctuation... Although, historically, the lows often occur during the most pessimistic times. Let's wait and see on Friday; hourly statistics will be clearer.

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