Gold in 2025-2026: Will it reach $5000 or is a correction coming?

Amazing Performance and Numbers That Speak for Themselves

Gold prices have not seen such an exciting surge in recent years. The year started at $2,798 and accelerated upward, breaking all previous expectations. The peak came in mid-October at $4,381 per ounce, representing a gain of over 50% since the beginning of the year. Even analysts who predicted strong increases — like JPMorgan — found themselves cautious in their initial forecasts.

This rise did not come out of nowhere. Behind every price jump are real factors: a weak US dollar, expectations of interest rate cuts, massive purchases by global central banks, and above all, political uncertainty and geopolitical tensions that have made investors see gold as an indispensable safe haven.

Price Journey Through 2025: From Stability to Explosion

The first quarter started cautiously. The price reached $2,251 in January before jumping to $2,894 in February. Asian central banks were actively buying, and Chinese demand was high.

In the second quarter, the price surged further. It reached $3,304 in March and then stabilized around $3,200-3,350 in the following months.

The third quarter saw a noticeable acceleration. September hit $3,770 — a milestone indicating the market was heading toward something bigger. Experts began talking about breaking the $4,000 barrier.

The fourth quarter: End of October saw the peak at $4,381. Then it dipped slightly to settle around $4,063 in November. Gold experienced its strongest year in the decade.

What Do Experts Say About the Coming Year?

Opinions are optimistic but not without conditions:

JPMorgan the most optimistic: forecasts of $5,000 by 2026, and $4,900 in the last quarter of the year.

Goldman Sachs balanced: sees $4,000 as a likely minimum by mid-2026, with an optimistic scenario reaching $4,900.

Morgan Stanley realistic: expects $4,500 per ounce by mid-2026 supported by investment funds and central banks.

Standard Chartered predicts $4,300 by the end of 2025 and $4,500 within the next 12 months.

HSBC and ANZ: the former forecasts $5,000, and the latter expects $4,400 by the end of 2025 and $4,600 by mid-2026.

Bank of America is more cautious: sees $4,000 as a target by Q3 2026.

The Real Drivers Behind the Rise

Inflation is not over yet: September inflation was 3% annually — above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Gold remains the best defensive weapon.

The dollar is weakening: the weaker the dollar, the higher gold prices. Dollar-denominated portfolios lose value, prompting investors to turn to precious metals.

Central banks keep buying: especially emerging countries seeking to reduce reliance on the dollar. Every purchase supports prices.

Political uncertainty: elections, geopolitical tensions, regional conflicts — all push investors toward safe havens.

Investment funds: massive inflows into gold ETFs( translated into real demand for the metal.

What if the Expected Rise Doesn’t Happen?

Risks exist. If the Federal Reserve decides to resume raising interest rates )instead of cutting(, demand could collapse. If some major geopolitical conflicts end, safe-haven demand might decline. A mass exit from gold funds could strongly pressure prices.

Factors Moving Gold Prices

Inflation: the primary driver. Rising prices = decreasing purchasing power = increased demand for gold.

Central bank policies: interest rate decisions determine whether investors flock to gold or cash deposits.

Dollar strength: an inverse relationship — a strong dollar weakens gold, and vice versa.

Geopolitics: wars, tensions, unexpected elections = increased demand for safe havens.

Actual demand: jewelry in India and China, industrial uses, investment funds.

Mine supply: relatively limited, but any disruption in production could push prices higher.

Investing in Gold: The Fast Track or Stability?

) Short-term speculation

Gold futures and CFDs allow you to profit from daily volatility. With 1:100 leverage, a $1,000 deposit controls $100,000 worth of gold. But leverage is a double-edged sword — it amplifies both gains and losses.

Example: if you expect gold to rise from $3,700 to $3,710, opening a buy position yields a $1,000 profit on a $1,000 capital. But if it drops by $10 instead of rising, you lose $1,000 — your entire capital.

Advantages: quick profits, high flexibility, no need to own physical gold.

Risks: requires daily monitoring, high trading costs, potential losses.

Long-term investment

Buying gold bars or coins, or investing in gold-backed funds — this is another path.

Advantages: greater security, inflation hedge, no timing worries.

Risks: may not yield quick profits, storage and insurance costs, gold does not generate interest like stocks.

Tips Before You Start

1. Understand what you’re doing: read about influencing factors, follow expert forecasts, don’t go in blindly.

2. Set your goals: protection against inflation? Quick profits? Diversification?

3. Assess your risk tolerance: gold is volatile, especially short-term. How much loss can you handle?

4. Monitor your portfolio: if gold’s weight becomes excessive, rebalance your assets.

5. Stick to your plan: don’t let emotions drive decisions. Discipline is key to success.

6. Beware of leverage: it can multiply your gains 100 times, but also wipe out your capital.

Conclusion: Is a Gold Rise Really Expected?

All indicators point to yes, but it’s not guaranteed. Data support forecasts of $4,000 - $5,000 per ounce during 2025-2026. The fundamental support is strong: inflation, global demand, government purchases, political uncertainty.

But conditions apply: if the Fed suddenly changes its policy, or geopolitical crises end, or investors exit gold en masse, the picture could change.

Ultimately, gold is not just for the wealthy — it’s a real tool for wealth preservation amid economic and political chaos. If you’re considering adding it to your portfolio, start with a clear understanding of your goals, develop a logical plan, and stick to it. Success favors the disciplined, not the gamblers.