## Silver Price Forecast 2025: Fed Rate-Cut Bets Push XAG/USD Higher as Economic Data Surprises

White metal trading has regained momentum with XAG/USD advancing near $72.70 during early European hours Wednesday, driven by persistent expectations of substantial Federal Reserve monetary easing through 2026. Market participants are increasingly pricing in a dovish policy trajectory despite stronger-than-anticipated economic expansion.

### Market Dynamics: Interest Rate Expectations Fuel Silver Gains

The CME FedWatch tool reveals traders are assigning a 70.6% probability to at least 50 basis points of rate cuts in 2026—a notably hawkish deviation from the Fed's own December dot plot guidance. Policymakers had indicated the Federal Funds Rate would settle around 3.4% by year-end 2026, suggesting minimal additional cuts beyond those already implemented. This divergence between market pricing and official projections has created tailwinds for non-interest-bearing commodities like Silver, which benefit when real yields compress.

Wednesday's economic calendar presents Initial Jobless Claims data at 13:30 GMT, with expectations for unemployment benefits to remain stationary at 223K. This data point provides crucial context following Tuesday's GDP surprise, where Q3 growth came in at 4.3% year-over-year, outpacing both previous quarter's 3.8% rate and economist consensus of 3.3%. The resilient economic backdrop contrasts with the market's expectation of policy normalization, creating an interesting paradox for precious metals positioning.

### Technical Position: Momentum Extremes Signal Caution Ahead

From a technical standpoint, XAG/USD is currently trading around $72.19 with the 20-day exponential moving average maintaining its upward trajectory. Price remains positioned decisively above this key moving average, preserving the bullish structure. The RSI (14) indicator has climbed to 80.95 territory, indicating stretched momentum conditions that historically precede consolidation phases or tactical pullbacks.

Should short-term momentum wane, the 20-day EMA at approximately $63.07 would represent the next meaningful support zone. Maintaining above this dynamic level would preserve the broader uptrend intact. Breaking below $63.07 would risk unleashing deeper retracement as overbought conditions normalize.

The silver price forecast for 2025 hinges on whether Fed rate-cut expectations can override increasingly robust economic data. Current positioning suggests the market remains confident in accommodative policy despite strong growth, keeping the upside bias intact for XAG/USD above the $72.70 vicinity.