SOL stabilizes around $138, is a breakthrough of technical resistance imminent? Comprehensive assessment of trendline analysis and institutional buy signals

Current Situation: SOL is in the midst of a technical peak

Solana has recently been trading around $138 and has entered the “closing the gap” phase with the upper trendline of the descending wedge pattern formed since early October. Starting from $131 on Monday trading, the price has now been supported at around $138, gradually strengthening market rebound sentiment. On the chart, this zone is not just a simple technical resistance but is considered a key turning point that will determine the trend direction in the coming weeks.

Technical Indicators Signal: Shift from Bearish to Neutral

The daily RSI settling at around 42 is noteworthy. Although below the neutral line of 50, it maintains an upward slope. This suggests that the downward momentum is gradually weakening. Additionally, the long/short ratio in the derivatives market reaching 1.07, the highest in over a month, indicates that market participants are generally leaning more towards bullish scenarios, which is a reasonable interpretation.

Institutional Capital’s ‘Adjusting Buy’ Signal: Is this a Confident Tilt?

Looking at the fund flow since the launch of the spot ETF on October 28, an interesting pattern emerges. The US-listed spot SOL ETF has recorded weekly net inflows since its launch at the end of October, with assets under management (AUM) approaching $971 million. The continued inflow of funds amid short-term volatility strongly signals that institutional investors are viewing the current level not as a “sell timing” but as an “opportunity to buy more.” This indicates active market strategies of dip-buying, turning the correction phase into a chance to expand positions.

Breakout Scenario: Why $160 is the First Target

A descending wedge pattern consists of two converging downward trendlines, and a clear breakout above the upper trendline is traditionally interpreted as a strong bullish signal. Currently, SOL is approaching this upper trendline, and breaking through it would naturally set the next daily resistance level at $160 as the first target.

Downside Risks: Possibility of Re-testing $121.66

It’s not all positive scenarios. If the breakout attempt fails and further declines resume, the low of November 21 at $121.66 will become the next checkpoint. If this level is broken, it could lead to a deeper correction beyond simple technical adjustment, making it a potential stop-loss level for traders.

Overall Assessment: Breakout Imminent, SOL at the Peak of Volatility

Currently, SOL is at a critical turning point where it must choose clearly between a rise or fall, rather than just undergoing a simple correction. Continuous inflows of institutional capital and a bullish tilt in the derivatives market increase the likelihood of breaking the upper trendline, supported by the gradual recovery of RSI. However, definitive signals are still needed, and whether SOL can reclaim the $160 level or defend the $121.66 level first will likely determine its future direction.