Miners capitulating pressure Bitcoin; resistance at 90K persists despite bottom signals

The Bitcoin network is facing a critical moment. Recent data shows a 4% drop in the hash rate — the most significant since mid-2024 — while 30-day realized volatility surged to 45%, a level not seen since April 2025. Less efficient operators are beginning to shut down equipment amid margin compression, suggesting that the worst may already be happening in the network’s structural layers.

Miner capitulation as a possible bottom signal

When miners capitulate, it generally means that selling pressure is close to exhaustion. According to recent analyses, this type of movement preceded positive Bitcoin recoveries in 65% of cases after 90 days. During periods of hash rate contraction observed over 90-day windows, the average return in six months was 72%, indicating that miner pain often marks the end of the bearish cycle.

Volatility in recent months has forced the industry into a deep reorganization. For the Bitmain S19 XP equipment, the breakeven electricity cost dropped 36% in a year — from $0.12 to $0.077 per kWh. Those who do not keep up with this efficiency face an increasing risk of exiting the market, concentrating mining among operators with more competitive infrastructure and access to cheaper energy.

China shifts Bitcoin energy to artificial intelligence

The shutdown of approximately 400,000 machines in Xinjiang province removed about 1.3 GW of capacity in just 24 hours. The reason is the reallocation of energy to data centers focused on artificial intelligence, an activity currently offering higher returns than mining. Estimates indicate that up to 10% of the global hash rate could be permanently lost in this process.

The Chinese decision illustrates a broader dynamic: at least 13 countries are now involved in Bitcoin mining with some level of government support, pursuing objectives of energy or monetary sovereignty. This geographic fragmentation tends to strengthen entrenched operators in regions with abundant energy, significantly raising the entry barrier in the sector.

Resistance at 90K stalls movement, but indicators show bullish divergence

On the technical side, Bitcoin remains in a sideways range, retreating to around US$87,700 after another failure to break through the US$90,000 resistance. The level has been accumulating liquidity and sell orders over recent weeks, acting as an invisible wall that stifles any stronger directional attempt.

The inability to surpass this level reflects a market without a clear protagonist. The price oscillates within a tight range, but a constructive signal emerges here: on the three-day chart, the (RSI) (Relative Strength Index) registers higher lows while the price forms lower lows — a classic bullish divergence. Similar setups in previous cycles preceded significant upward movements, although divergences never serve as an isolated trigger.

On the four-hour scale, the chart shows recurring rejections at the 200-period moving averages, both simple and exponential. As long as the price remains below these averages, the sideways trend persists and support tests remain likely. Reclaiming this level is a necessary condition to establish a more robust bullish structure.

Gold decouples and relative weakness in risk-averse context

Bitcoin’s behavior diverges from the historical pattern. While gold and silver hit all-time highs amid macroeconomic uncertainties — with gold approaching US$4,500 per ounce — Bitcoin does not follow this capital flow, contradicting traditional positive correlation patterns in risk-averse environments.

This disconnect highlights a relative loss of value of the crypto asset. The BTC/XAU pair shows technical compression, suggesting that the market still evaluates the digital currency differently from the precious metal in defensive cycles. The situation reflects the absence of a sufficiently strong trigger to turn resistance into support with significant volume.

Institutional short positions and liquidity reduction amplify volatility

Large investors have opened short positions in Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana totaling around US$250 million. The move suggests a risk mitigation strategy against further corrections, not necessarily an aggressive bet against the market.

However, the impact of these positions intensifies in a low-liquidity environment. As the year-end approaches, many operators have reduced exposure to preserve gains, contracting global liquidity and increasing the likelihood of sharp moves even without new catalysts. The reduced depth in order books makes the market hypersensitive to smaller operations, amplifying short-term volatility.

For Bitcoin to break out of consolidation, a significant increase in volume is needed to bring in directional capital. Without this trigger, the price continues testing lower zones in search of sufficient demand to absorb the current supply.

Perspective: when the market fills with money

QCP Capital highlights that liquidity is likely to remain low during the Christmas week, which could amplify both continuation moves and quick reactions to macroeconomic data. The market is now awaiting a more consistent influx of buying capital.

Indicators suggest a gradual weakening of selling pressure, especially with miner capitulation removing forced marginal agents to liquidate. Historically, these episodes mark cycle reversals when institutional re-entry occurs. The current gold price levels well above historical averages — contrasting with Bitcoin in a compression zone — offer an opportunity to observe when and how defensive capital flows return to risk assets.

The next catalyst will determine whether the network remains in consolidation or finally breaks resistance with renewed buying pressure.