Many people are pursuing Alpha, which is the so-called excess return—beating the market's returns. There's nothing wrong with this idea; in theory, the more Alpha you have, the better.

But there's an easily overlooked issue: no matter how impressive your Alpha performance is, it can't change a basic fact—the ultimate returns still depend on the market itself. During a major bear market, even if your skills are top-notch, your returns could be painfully poor.

Let me tell you an interesting comparison. Suppose there are two investors: one named Alex, who is highly skilled and can consistently beat the market by 5% each year. The other named Pat, who is terrible at investing and loses 5% each year.

Under normal circumstances, Alex's annual returns would be 10% higher than Pat's, no contest.

But what if their entry times are staggered? For example, Alex has been investing in U.S. stocks from 1960 to 1980, while Pat only starts after 1980. What would happen then?

The answer might surprise you: although Alex's investing ability is obviously stronger, Pat's cumulative returns could actually surpass Alex's in the end. Why? Because the power of choosing the right timing can sometimes be much greater than skill itself. This is also why experienced investors often say that timing is often more critical to long-term returns than stock-picking ability.