The bond market has recently sent an interesting signal. The yield spread between the 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds has widened to a nearly 9-month high. The logic behind this is quite clear — investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in 2026. This signal is highly significant for the crypto market.

More importantly, on Friday, two major events will happen on the same day: the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the December non-farm payroll report, and the U.S. Supreme Court may rule on the legality of tariff policies. Non-farm payroll data has always been a market indicator; it directly influences expectations for the Federal Reserve’s future policies. The tariff ruling concerns the global economic outlook. The combination of these two events could create substantial market movement.

Since the government shutdown was resolved last year, the market has been waiting for clear and reliable labor market data to break the deadlock. Now, with the data about to be released and policy uncertainties lingering, the entire financial market is holding its breath. Although the crypto community may seem independent, it is actually closely linked to these macroeconomic drivers. How bonds, stocks, and commodities move will directly influence the crypto market’s direction.

Whether this sequence of events can become a new breakthrough or is just a fleeting moment depends on the data itself and the policy trajectory. Staying closely tuned will be rewarding.