#比特币价格预测 From 69,000 at the end of 2021 to nearly 100,000 this year, Bitcoin has completed a full cycle in four years. Looking at Polymarket data, which dropped from 10% on December 21 to 8% on the 23rd, the market sentiment shift over these two days actually reflects a familiar historical pattern—whenever large funds enter at high levels, retail investors' expectations begin to loosen.

Remember 2017? Back then, people were also discussing whether Bitcoin could break through 20,000, but it only reached 13,000 before pulling back. The situation in 2021 is even closer to now—rising from 50,000 to 69,000, then experiencing a full two-year bear market before regaining strength.

The decline in the 100,000 USD forecast probability essentially indicates that the market is making a choice: whether to continue chasing the FOMO or to be cautious of the risks at the cycle top. From the 8.5% drop, I can see that institutions and smart money are gradually reducing their positions, and this signal often precedes any technical indicator.

History never repeats, but it often rhymes. Whether Bitcoin can break through 100,000 again this time is no longer a matter of prediction probability, but rather how deeply participants remember the lessons of the last cycle.