#密码资产动态追踪 Bitcoin's 1-hour chart hides a battle between bulls and bears—bottom divergence signals are quietly forming

After so many years of trading, I've seen this scenario many times: Bollinger Bands narrowing, MACD sticking below the zero line, looking extremely calm, but this is precisely the quiet before the market gathers strength.

Let's analyze the current situation from three perspectives:

**Technical side**: The price has been suppressed along the middle band of the BOLL, with volume increasing during declines and shrinking during rebounds—a typical weak pattern. But there's a crucial detail: the MACD histogram has already shown signs of bottom divergence. The price makes new lows, but the momentum doesn't follow—this divergence is like saying "selling pressure is almost gone." Once enough energy is accumulated, the bulls' counterattack could be triggered at any moment.

**On-chain data**: It has sent more interesting signals. In the past day, exchange net inflows reached 32,000 BTC, which sounds like many are exiting. But at the same time, whale addresses are quietly accumulating in batches. This contrast of "retail panic selling and smart money quietly accumulating" often indicates that a short-term bottom is forming.

**Macro perspective**: The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes hint at a "possible rate cut," and Bitcoin ETF holdings are increasing against the trend, indicating that the expectation of liquidity tightening is easing. For crypto assets, this is a rare breathing space.

My judgment is this: the market sentiment has already fallen into an excessive panic, but the real money has been quietly positioning itself. If the price can consolidate sideways in the current range for 4 to 6 hours, completing a bottom formation, and then break through the middle Bollinger Band with MACD confirming a golden cross, the short-term rebound could target the 92,500 resistance. Conversely, if volume breaks down, stop-loss immediately.

Trading is ultimately a contest of planning and execution, not guessing the direction. I have placed orders in batches for validation. Remember this: good markets are born from despair, fluctuating in hesitation.

$BTC