Recently, during project research, I came across an asset called BREV. The data looked good, and I conducted a full investment analysis—waiting for the airdrop pressure to ease and the potential selling wave from holders to pass, it theoretically presented a good short-term bottom-fishing opportunity. The odds were there, at least 20x.

But in the end, I didn't act.

As a result, the project surged 50% in 24 hours. Do I feel a bit regretful? Honestly, no. Instead, I have a faint sense of relief.

The reason is simple—every time I picked up my phone to place an order, the same question flashed in my mind: Is this really the right thing to do? The answer was always no. Even if the success rate looked 99%, even if the data supported it, my intuition kept shaking its head. This uncertainty didn't come from technical analysis but from the entire trading logic itself. Giving up on this "trade," in a way, I was doing the right thing.

There are too many temptations around me. Most temptations share a common characteristic—short-term. Once you fall into short-term thinking, good results are rare in the end. Starting with the end in mind—this phrase has been said a thousand times, but very few can truly practice it.

A counterexample is today’s new project launch on a top-tier exchange. Participating at a valuation of 5 million FDV, the project raised about 10 million, with a circulating supply ratio of 26.4%. Roughly estimating, there’s at least a 20x profit potential. I didn’t hesitate this time and joined directly.

In the end, I did see over 30x on paper. But here’s the reality—oversubscription reached 1200x. Each account was allocated less than 1.5U, and the actual profit per order was only about 35U. Sounds pretty good, but in the face of that oversubscription number, it’s really quite mediocre.

Putting these two examples together, the logic becomes clearer: not everything with high certainty should be done, and not every opportunity with tempting returns can be fully captured. The key is to ask yourself—what will the final outcome be with this choice?