2026-01-07 13:27:08

Tonight, two key data releases will directly determine the future trend of the crypto market.

At 21:15 Beijing time, the December ADP employment change data will be released, followed by the 23:00 JOLTS job openings data for November. These two indicators are the market's early indicators before Friday's non-farm payroll report. How the market interprets them will influence the Federal Reserve's next moves.

Looking back to last month, the ADP unexpectedly fell by 32,000, well below expectations. This time, the market generally predicts a rebound, expecting an increase of 47,000. However, if the actual figure is less than 30,000 or even turns negative again, expectations for rate cuts will intensify—this would be a positive signal for risk assets like $BTC and $ETH.

If the JOLTS data shows a significant decline, it will also reinforce expectations of the Fed shifting to easing in 2026. Simply put, weak data means accelerated rate cuts, which is a short-term positive for mainstream cryptocurrencies; conversely, strong data will suppress risk assets, causing the crypto market to suffer.

It’s especially important to note that the current relationship between the crypto market and traditional risk assets is somewhat abnormal—when stocks fall, sometimes the crypto market drops even more sharply. So when these data are released, don’t just look at the direction; be prepared for risk management.

BTC0,33%

ETH1,15%

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RugResistant

· 01-08 16:37

nah hold up... analyzed thoroughly & red flags detected here. weak data = rate cuts = pump... but that decoupling thing? that's the actual exploit vector nobody's talking about. btc pumps while equities dump? that's not normal behavior, that's a potential trap setup. DYOR but seriously, tighten your stops tonight.

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SchrodingerAirdrop

· 01-08 08:23

Weak data will lead to interest rate cuts, the key is whether ADP will let us down. If it does, BTC is about to take off.

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LiquiditySurfer

· 01-07 13:57

21:15 That wave ADP, if it underperforms again, I'll just go surfing directly. Anyway, as the rate cut expectations heat up, liquidity loosens accordingly. That's the real surfing point.

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HappyToBeDumped

· 01-07 13:52

Weak data supports this logic, but it feels like it's becoming less and less useful... When the stock market drops, the crypto market drops even more sharply—whoever tries to catch this falling knife will only end up unlucky.

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GameFiCritic

· 01-07 13:48

It's another case of looking at data to speculate on cryptocurrencies. Ultimately, it's still a gamble on the Federal Reserve's intentions. When the ADP data is weak, they cut interest rates; when rates are cut, they buy coins. The logic is too linear. The key point is that the correlation between cryptocurrencies and stocks has already broken down. Even if you bet correctly on the macro direction, it's useless. That's the most frustrating part. No matter how well you prepare for risks, you really need to understand what you're actually betting on.

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BlockchainArchaeologist

· 01-07 13:31

Weak data is actually the real positive, while strong data makes the crypto market even worse. This logic is a bit harsh.

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