2026-01-08 14:37:37

2025 has come to an end, and many people are starting to consider how to adjust their investment strategies for 2026. Looking back at this year's market performance, the path to making money isn't actually that complicated.

The true factors that determine returns are mainly two: first, the fluctuations in value between the US dollar, other fiat currencies, and gold; second, the relative performance differences across various markets. Although US stocks appear strong when valued in dollars, comparing them to gold and non-US markets reveals they are not as impressive. In fact, gold's performance in 2025 outperformed most major markets.

Speaking of AI, the hype has indeed cooled down. From certain perspectives, this wave of AI investment has already entered the early stages of a bubble. Continuing to chase risks is very risky.

So, what is more worth paying attention to now? Not just nominal returns, but the underlying factors such as currency devaluation, risk premium space, and where liquidity is shifting. Changes in geopolitics and the international order are also quietly altering capital flow preferences.

Looking at specific data, if we use current US stock valuations and bond yields to estimate long-term returns, the expected return on stocks is about 4.7%, while bonds are around 4.9%. What does this mean? The risk premium of stocks over bonds has become so thin that it’s hardly worth mentioning. In other words, you take on the risk of stocks but only earn a return lower than that of bonds. This trade-off is clearly not cost-effective.

The investment logic for 2026 needs to be adjusted. Instead of focusing solely on stock price movements, it’s better to pay more attention to the magnitude of currency devaluation, the rise and fall of risk premiums, and which assets are becoming new hotspots for capital inflows. The market rules are changing, and our thinking framework must adapt accordingly.

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tx_pending_forever

· 22h ago

The story of gold outperforming US stocks has been evident for a long time; it's just that no one dared to bet heavily on it. The AI bubble is indeed inflating, but those who will truly lose money are still the latecomers chasing the hype. Bond yields are already at 4.9%. Who would still risk investing in stocks? That logic makes sense. Liquidity is the key; it’s about where the money flows, not just chasing those superficial gains. Has everyone not yet realized the impact of currency devaluation? Some have been saying that US stock valuations are overinflated, and now there is data to support this view. Instead of chasing hot topics, it’s better to study how geopolitical shifts change capital flows—that’s the advanced approach. Risk premiums are so thin they’re almost paper-thin. How do I approach this? It’s frustrating.

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DegenWhisperer

· 22h ago

Gold is really tough, the US stock market this year looks flashy but is actually just like that... The AI bubble has been obvious for a long time, and those still going all-in are just cannon fodder. What does it mean that bonds have overtaken stocks? It's time for everyone to wake up. Instead of chasing after ups and downs, it's better to watch currency devaluation—that's the real key to making money. With risk premiums gone, dare to play stocks? Am I out of my mind? Geopolitics is the real determining factor; US dollar hegemony is also nearing its end. Comparing 4.7% and 4.9%, only a fool would choose the former. By 2026, I need to change my investment mindset, or else I’ll just be freeloading. Where is liquidity shifting to? That’s what I really want to know.

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ConsensusDissenter

· 22h ago

Gold outperforms US stocks, this has been obvious for a long time. Just not sure how long it can sustain in 2026. The AI bubble came so quickly? I thought it could at least last another two years. Expected return of 4.7% for US stocks... bonds at 4.9%? This trade really doesn't make much sense. So the logic for 2026 is not to look at stock prices, but at exchange rates and geopolitical risks? Time to learn a new way to survive. Risk premiums are so thin they’re almost negligible, no wonder so many people are rushing to buy gold and non-US assets.

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Fren_Not_Food

· 22h ago

The fact that gold outperforms US stocks has been obvious for a long time. People in the crypto circle understand this. --- I believe in the AI bubble, but who really knows where the next trend will be? --- Bond yields and stock yields are about the same now. Taking risks yields less profit, this trade-off really doesn't work. --- Ultimately, it's about watching currency devaluation; that's the real gold and silver. --- Geopolitical shifts are quietly changing the flow of capital, which is very critical. Many haven't realized this yet. --- Instead of chasing highs and lows, it's better to study where capital is flowing to. --- By 2026, we need to change our mindset. Nominal yields are虚的, risk premiums are the real indicators. --- US stock valuations are so high, but it's not as attractive as you might think. --- Non-US markets are seriously undervalued, right? This wave is worth paying attention to.

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