Latest economic data shows that the growth outlook for the US this year is somewhat brighter than expected. Fitch recently upgraded its forecast for the US economy—2025 GDP growth rate was raised from 1.8% to 2.1%, and next year's growth was also increased from 1.9% to 2.0%. This adjustment is mainly due to the government data gap at the end of last year being filled, with actual performance exceeding expectations.

But inflation is indeed a bit troublesome. Due to incomplete data for October, the inflation trend over the past two months is somewhat unclear. Currently, it is estimated that the December inflation rate has risen to 3.0% (from 2.7% in November), and it may continue to rise next year influenced by tariffs, possibly reaching 3.2% by the end of the year.

On the employment front, things are relatively stable. Although the pace of hiring is slowing down, the decline in labor supply is offsetting this impact. The average unemployment rate is expected to remain around 4.6% in 2026, roughly the same as the current level.

From the Federal Reserve's perspective, they expect two rate cuts in the first half of 2026, lowering the upper limit of the federal funds rate from the current level to around 3.25%. For investors who continuously monitor macroeconomic conditions, these data can help better understand the future market rhythm.