2026-01-08 17:25:36

Polymarket has launched a prediction market about Greenland, and the discussion is currently very active. The main contract focuses on a core question: Can the United States acquire Greenland before 2027? The market prices this event at around 15%, reflecting traders' real expectations of its likelihood.

Interestingly, the platform has also introduced several supporting segmented scenario contracts, allowing players to bet on more specific dimensions. For example, whether Trump will visit Greenland, whether the US will make a partial acquisition, whether the situation will escalate, and so on. The existence of these derivative contracts fully demonstrates how prediction markets can break down complex geopolitical issues into tradable, fine-grained events.

This also reflects the growing maturity of decentralized prediction markets — no longer limited to traditional finance or sports event predictions, but extending into international politics, policy battles, and other multi-dimensional scenarios, providing new ways for market participants to interact.

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LucidSleepwalker

· 7h ago

Haha, a 15% probability... Trump really dares to think that way. --- The segmented contract gameplay is indeed fierce, treating geopolitical events as options trading. I like it. --- Prediction markets are getting crazier and crazier; you can bet on anything. --- Wait, Greenland can also be traded on-chain? Web3 is really about turning everything into tradable assets. --- This round of Polymarket is interesting; compared to sports events, it's much more niche. --- 15% sounds low, but there are already people betting real money on it here... crazy. --- I just want to see how the odds will fluctuate. What kind of market movement can a single tweet from Trump trigger?

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GasFeeGazer

· 9h ago

I like this vibe. Being able to slice up geopolitical issues into options for selling, Web3 is just unbeatable. Is 15% pricing too low? I think the big players are definitely quietly making money. The segmented contract trick is brilliant. Just the Trump visit to Greenland makes me want to go all in. Prediction markets are really the last bastion of rationality in the crypto world. Why hasn't anyone created a contract like "Will Biden come out urgently to stop this"? That would be truly exciting. This seems much more reliable than speculating on air coins. At least losing money has a story behind it. Turning politics into trading pairs, gm crypto, what do you guys count as economists? If the US actually acquires Greenland this time, how many people will get liquidated? Haha. The main contract at 15% feels like institutions are harvesting retail traders with this price signal. Wait, is this hinting at something? Feels off.

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Tokenomics911

· 01-10 09:36

Haha, has Greenland really become a gamble? 15% is a bit low, how rich does this guy have to be to dare to put real money into this? --- Wow, segmented contracts really financialize politics, which is a bit outrageous but definitely exciting. --- I just want to know if anyone would really bet on Trump visiting Greenland... Web3 can turn any dream into an asset. --- Prediction markets are getting crazier, from votes to real estate, now even national acquisitions can be traded. Should I laugh or cry? --- This is what I love about Poly, they dare to list anything. Let's see who laughs last in 2027. --- But is the 15% pricing overestimating Trump's executive power... I personally think there's a problem with this number. --- Haha, this wave really gamifies geopolitics. Is the next step buying and selling cities? --- Hey, I think this kind of detailed breakdown is more interesting than just betting on big or small events. Details are where the money is. --- Poly really is daring to think and do. How could traditional exchanges allow such markets to exist?

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BearMarketSurvivor

· 01-08 17:55

15% pricing? Are you joking or does someone really believe in this script? --- Haha, derivative contracts are everywhere. Anyway, most people are just betting on Trump’s sudden rise. --- Is the prediction market mature? I think it’s more like turning politics into a casino. What about risk management? --- Buying Greenland before 2027... Before betting, ask Denmark what they think. --- No matter how detailed the event breakdowns are, in the end, it still depends on political trends. This stuff is just big leverage bragging. --- Polymarket is trying to lull retail investors with derivatives again. Remember, complexity equals high risk. --- Interesting, but I don’t touch these geopolitical betting games. Supply lines are too long.

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AllInAlice

· 01-08 17:55

The Greenland acquisition has really become a gamble A 15% probability... It seems traders are still quite rational These detailed scenario contracts are pretty crazy, you can even bet separately on Trump's visit, hilarious Prediction markets are getting more competitive, anything can be used for betting

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CoffeeOnChain

· 01-08 17:54

This Greenland disk is really a bit crazy, a 15% probability indicates that traders are still very serious… Betting on whether Trump will go to Greenland or not with such detailed contracts, the Web3 vibe is too strong haha Prediction markets are becoming more competitive, expanding from sports events to geopolitical issues. The idea is good, but it also feels like betting on politicians' capriciousness The granular event breakdown is indeed impressive, turning complex problems into tradable fragmented options. This is the true gameplay of prediction markets However, to be honest, some contracts definitely lack liquidity. Is there really someone willing to take the other side?

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DegenGambler

· 01-08 17:31

15%? I think this odds are still high. Will Greenland really sell? These Americans dare to bet on everything haha I need to keep an eye on the contract Trump is visiting. This guy can do anything Prediction markets are getting crazier, anything can be traded... It's a bit addictive Waiting to see how this farce ends, the low probability indicates everyone is rational No, does the US really plan to take Greenland? That move is incredible This is the true flavor of poly, where you can bet on anything outrageous

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PrivacyMaximalist

· 01-08 17:30

Ha, 15% odds and you really dare to bet? I need to see who bets that Trump will actually go to Greenland in this game. Humans really will bet on anything... even geopolitics has become a lottery. This is the flavor of Web3—breaking the impossible into small pieces to play with. Derivative contracts are so numerous that it's ridiculous; any imaginable scenario can have a market. Greenland: I just want to quietly do my ice...

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MemeKingNFT

· 01-08 17:29

15% pricing? Isn't that just a chip game at the gambling table... If only geopolitics could be tokenized like JPEGs --- The gameplay of subdivided contracts feels no different from the NFT fragmentation back in the day; in the end, it's all about the mentality of the retail investors --- Hey, this is the kind of prediction market gameplay that should be played, much more interesting than just trading meme coins every day --- Wait, can Greenland really influence on-chain data fluctuations? --- Wow, political games are also being moved onto the blockchain. Going with the flow is the way to go --- To put it simply, it's still about gambling on human nature. The 15% is also a result of human nature pricing --- Breaking down complex issues into fine-grained events... I think I heard a similar logic before the FTX collapse --- The more detailed the contract, the more risk is dispersed. This time, it depends on who can catch the true bottom consensus

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TestnetNomad

· 01-08 17:27

15% really is a bit high, feels like the market is too optimistic --- Can Greenland really be used as a chessboard for speculation? Sure, sure --- The segmented contract move is brilliant, slicing political events into products to sell --- Laughing out loud, you can even bet on Trump's visit to Greenland, web3 really dares to play everything --- Prediction markets are getting more and more absurd, I just want to ask who bought at the 15% level --- This move has indeed entertainment-ized geopolitical issues, feels like something's off but can't quite put my finger on it --- Polymarket's derivative design this time is really impressive, but it feels like they're giving tools to political gamblers --- I bet on that partial acquisition contract, let's see if I can catch the bottom --- Web3 prediction markets now dare to price everything, is the next one the Mars colonization plan --- Does the 15% pricing reflect real expectations? I think it's more about price discovery due to lack of liquidity

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