The freshly released US Bureau of Labor Statistics data is a bit sobering: in 2025, the total non-farm employment increase will be only 584,000, averaging just 49,000 per month. What does this mean? A year ago at this time, it was 2 million, with an average of 168,000 per month—a direct plunge, a decline of over 70%.

Don't underestimate this number. The sharp slowdown in employment growth reflects signals of an economic slowdown. As job opportunities decrease and companies hold back on hiring, all pointing in the same direction: economic pressure is mounting.
And what does this mean for the Federal Reserve? Simply put, weak employment = rising expectations of rate cuts. One of the Fed's core tasks is to stabilize employment, and when non-farm data drops significantly, the justification for rate cuts becomes stronger. Once the rate cut cycle truly begins, liquidity will loosen.
How does this affect the crypto market? History shows that a loose liquidity environment often pushes up asset prices across the board. Capital needs to find a place to go, and cryptocurrencies, as high-risk, high-reward assets, naturally attract some funds seeking returns. Coins like PEPE, ZEC, and SHIB have previously benefited partly from such macroeconomic expectation shifts.
The current market has already partially reflected these sentiments, but the true trend depends on subsequent developments. Recession expectations and policy shifts will continue to compete. Those wanting to participate are advised to hold their spot positions and keep a close eye on the Fed's attitude changes and subsequent employment data. The next narrative rotation is very likely to emerge from these macro clues.