The Federal Reserve has only a 4.4% chance of cutting interest rates in January, but is expected to cut a total of 25 basis points in March.

HashBandit · 2026-01-11T22:08:11+00:00

According to CME data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in January is currently 4.4%, with a 95.6% chance of holding rates steady. However, the probability of a 25 basis point cut in March has risen to 27.6%, indicating a gradually increasing likelihood of policy adjustment, although the overall chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut remains low at 1.1%.

HashBandit

2026-01-11 22:08:11

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【BitPush】According to the latest data from CME “Federal Reserve Watch,” the expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January is currently not optimistic. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is only 4.4%, which means the probability of maintaining the current interest rate level is as high as 95.6%. The market generally expects little change in policy tone in the short term.

However, from a time span perspective, there has been a subtle change. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut increased to 27.6%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged decreased to 71.3%. This indicates that although the room for rate cuts is limited in the near term, the likelihood of policy adjustments is gradually increasing over time. Notably, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut remains very low at only 1.1%, indicating that the market’s expectation for significant easing is essentially zero.

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