2026-01-11 22:43:44

Some analysts have conducted long-term retrospective studies on Bitcoin using a power-law model. According to this analytical framework, $65,000 is considered a key breakthrough level for the current cycle. Looking downward, the $45,000 range becomes a possible retest area.

Interestingly, the fit of this power-law model is quite good—R² reaches around 0.96, indicating a high level of support from historical data for this model. However, in terms of short-term influence, this theory currently appears relatively neutral and does not generate particularly strong buy or sell signals. In the long run, this highly fitting model still provides some reference for understanding Bitcoin's cyclical patterns.

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DaoDeveloper

· 13h ago

r² of 0.96 sounds solid on paper but like... does it actually predict the next move or just fit the past beautifully? that's the real question ngl

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SchrodingerProfit

· 13h ago

A 0.96 fit score sounds impressive, but there's no signal in the short term, which is awkward—feels like armchair quarterbacking after the fact.

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FarmHopper

· 13h ago

A fit score of 0.96 sounds impressive, but if there's no signal in the short term, it doesn't really mean anything. With such a high R², why is it still unpredictable... How did it become neutral? If 65k can't be broken, just head straight to 45k, which is a bit risky. The model looks good but the data isn't useful; I've heard this logic too many times. It seems like the power law model is just used for hindsight analysis; its foresight capability is indeed average.

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MiningDisasterSurvivor

· 13h ago

I've experienced models with R² over 0.9, but in 2018 it still crashed. This framework is just post-hoc armchair strategizing. --- Is 65k the key level? Ha, let's see if the coin really drops below 45k first. Predictions are too cheap now. --- High overfitting? History won't repeat itself; it only repeats unpredictably. I see this as a beautiful dream cooked up for new retail investors. --- Don't bother with short-term neutrality; the project team will have already run away long before that day in the long term. --- Another model master, good-looking data but can you predict the next mining disaster? --- An R² of 0.96 sounds impressive, but what about those confident analysts the day before yesterday? Their wallets have been cleaned out. --- Long-term reference significance? I ask you, has this model protected anyone's principal? --- The real lesson of a bear market is that no matter how perfect the math, it can't beat the house's chips.

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AlphaBrain

· 14h ago

0.96 of the goodness of fit is indeed noticeable, but it's quite awkward that there are no signals in the short term. --- It's again a power-law model supported by historical data... Honestly, it still comes down to luck. --- If 45k really hits, I'll buy the dip; if 65k can't be broken, I'll keep lying flat. --- High R² is impressive, but this thing is useless for predicting short-term market trends... --- Power-law models sound fancy, but in reality, it's still about market sentiment. --- Every time they say it has reference value, but in the end, it still gets smashed through... Just a routine. --- Long-term optimism is correct, but who can wait now?

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SelfCustodyBro

· 14h ago

R²0.96 sounds impressive, but in the short term, the signals are still ambiguous... This is a common issue with models; a high fit to historical data doesn't necessarily mean accurate future predictions. Don't be fooled by 65K; 45K is the real support level to watch. Honestly, I've seen many versions of this power law, each time claiming this time is different... but the crypto market loves to slap you in the face.

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SleepTrader

· 14h ago

A fit score of 0.96 can indeed fool many people, but in the short term, there's nothing to say about neutrality... Isn't that just saying "We also don't know how it will move in the near future"?

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