Someone bets on Strategy's major change before March: only one of four conflicting events can come true

A certain user created a new wallet “khami” today, betting that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) will experience at least one significant event change before March 31, 2026. These four betting options are mutually exclusive, revealing the market’s huge divergence in expectations for this company’s prospects.

Four Contradictory Betting Options

According to Lookonchain monitoring, the four bets placed by this new wallet are:

The opposition among these four options is quite interesting. The first two are completely opposite, reflecting vastly different expectations for Strategy’s Bitcoin strategy; the third and fourth represent the extreme ends of the worst and best outcomes.

The Actual Status of Strategy

According to the latest information, Strategy currently holds 673,783 BTC, with an average purchase price of about $75,024, totaling over $61.16 billion, with an unrealized profit rate of 20.98%. Based on these data, the company’s financial situation is far from “on the brink of bankruptcy.”

More notably, Saylor’s recent series of actions demonstrate a firm commitment to Bitcoin. On January 11, he tweeted “Running Bitcoin,” echoing Hal Finney’s historic tweet about launching the Bitcoin network in 2009. Subsequently, Strategy announced continued Bitcoin accumulation. All these signals point in one direction: the company is unlikely to sell Bitcoin or declare bankruptcy in the short term.

Market Divergence Behind the Bet

This “khami” bet reflects the market’s genuine disagreement on Strategy’s future:

Optimists’ logic

Believe that Strategy is likely to be included in the S&P 500. MSCI once proposed removing Strategy from the index due to its large Bitcoin holdings but later decided to retain and further study it. Inclusion in the S&P 500 would significantly enhance MSTR’s institutional recognition, which is a major positive market expectation.

Aggressive bettors’ logic

Believe that Strategy will continue to increase Bitcoin holdings to over 750,000 BTC. Based on Saylor’s recent accumulation pace, this goal could be achieved within three months. Information from January 10 shows Strategy raised $116 million through convertible bonds to buy 1,286 BTC, and this financing and accumulation mode could easily continue before March.

Pessimists’ logic

This faction is clearly in the minority. Although the bet includes a “bankruptcy” option, Strategy holds over $60 billion in Bitcoin assets as backing, making bankruptcy highly unlikely—unless an extreme market crash or policy black swan event occurs.

Which item is most likely to happen?

Based on current information:

• Sell all Bitcoin: Least likely. Saylor’s words and actions point in the opposite direction, contradicting all his commitments over the past two years.

• Hold over 750,000 BTC: Most likely. With the current accumulation pace, an increase of about 20,000 BTC in three months is entirely feasible.

• Declare bankruptcy: Extremely unlikely. Only if unforeseen extreme events occur.

• Be included in the S&P 500: Moderately likely. Depends on the index committee’s decision; the timeframe is relatively tight.

Summary

The essence of this bet is a wager on Strategy’s future direction. Regardless of the outcome, it reflects the market’s high attention to this “Bitcoin holding company.” Based on current data, the most probable event before March 31 is that the holdings will surpass 750,000 BTC. However, market uncertainty always exists, and key follow-up points include observing Saylor’s financing actions, Bitcoin price trends, and the attitude adjustments of the S&P 500 index.