Goldman Sachs 2026 Economic Outlook: Strong US Growth Coexists with Moderate Inflation, Fed Expected to Cut Rates Twice More

Goldman Sachs released the “U.S. Economic Outlook 2026” report on January 11, providing a relatively optimistic outlook for this year’s markets. In terms of economic growth, inflation control, and monetary policy, Goldman Sachs has given clear forecast directions. These predictions not only relate to the trajectory of the U.S. economy but will also have a profound impact on global capital markets.

Economic Growth Outlook: Resilience Remains

Goldman Sachs predicts that the U.S. economy will maintain a relatively strong growth momentum in 2026. According to the report data, based on year-over-year comparison for the fourth quarter, the GDP growth rate is 2.5%; if calculated on an annual average basis, the growth rate is 2.8%.

Main Drivers of Growth

The report points out that U.S. economic growth will be primarily driven by the following three factors:

• The stimulative effect of tax cuts
• Consumer spending driven by real wage growth
• Increased purchasing power from rising wealth (possibly due to asset price appreciation)

These factors collectively form the foundation of economic growth, making Goldman Sachs relatively optimistic about the growth prospects this year.

Inflation and Interest Rates: Mild but Controllable

Inflation Expectations

Goldman Sachs forecasts that by December 2026, core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate will reach 2.1% year-over-year, and the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) will slow to 2%. This indicates that inflation will trend toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% long-term target, remaining within manageable bounds.

Federal Reserve Rate Cut Path

Based on assessments of the economic and inflation outlook, Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice in the second half of this year:

• June: 25 basis point rate cut
• September: 25 basis point rate cut

This forecast aligns with the views of other mainstream market institutions. Related information shows that Morgan Stanley, Nomura, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo, among others, all predict rate cuts in June and September, forming a relatively unified market consensus.

Labor Market: Growth with Hidden Concerns

Unemployment Rate Expected to Remain Stable

Goldman Sachs predicts the baseline unemployment rate will remain at 4.5%, indicating that the overall labor market will stay relatively stable.

Potential Risk: No Employment Growth

The report highlights a specific risk factor to watch: as companies utilize artificial intelligence to reduce labor costs, there is a risk of entering a period of “no employment growth.” This means the economy could continue to grow, but employment growth may stagnate or even decline, putting pressure on consumption and social stability.

Stability Expectations for Trade Policies

Goldman Sachs’s report assumes that, due to upcoming midterm elections, cost-of-living issues will become a major political topic, prompting the White House to avoid any further large-scale tariff increases. This forecast suggests that trade policies may remain relatively stable, reducing the risk of escalation in trade conflicts.

Market Significance: Potential Impact on Crypto and RWA

Improved Interest Rate Environment

The expectation of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is generally positive for the cryptocurrency market. Related information indicates that Bernstein maintains a “market outperform” rating for Coinbase, expecting a tokenization supercycle in 2026. A loose interest rate environment is conducive to the performance of risk assets.

Opportunities in the RWA Market

Goldman Sachs’s stable economic outlook creates a favorable macro environment for the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA). According to related reports, over $30 billion worth of RWA has been anchored on blockchain, with traditional financial giants like BlackRock and Goldman Sachs actively participating in this field. Stable economic growth and manageable inflation expectations give institutional capital more confidence to enter this emerging sector.

Summary

Goldman Sachs’s 2026 economic outlook sketches a relatively optimistic but cautious picture: U.S. economy will grow by 2.5-2.8%, inflation will be mild and controllable, and the Federal Reserve will cut rates twice in the second half of the year. This outlook has been recognized by multiple market institutions, forming a relatively unified consensus.

Key concerns include the risk of “no employment growth” driven by AI substitution in the labor market, and the impact of midterm elections on trade policies. For the crypto market, expectations of rate cuts and economic stability are positive factors, especially providing macro support for the development of emerging applications like RWA.