2026-01-12 03:26:52

Goldman Sachs recently released its economic outlook report for 2026, believing that the US economy will achieve an ideal state of strong growth and moderate inflation coexistence. As a result, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June and September.

But looking closely at this logical chain, the problem arises. Goldman Sachs' forecast implies that there will be no rate cuts in the first five months of 2026, and this so-called "forward-looking positive" has limited impact on boosting the market. In the Bitcoin market, it is likely to continue the pattern of shrinking volume and bottoming out in the first half of the year, without any substantial policy-driven catalyst.

What's more interesting is that if economic data indeed improves but the unemployment rate quietly rises due to AI automation, the Fed's situation will become awkward. They might be forced to be much more aggressive than Goldman Sachs currently predicts in the second half of the year, possibly cutting rates earlier or increasing the magnitude of rate cuts. In this way, the entire policy trajectory for 2026 would have a lot of uncertainty, and whether the current consensus expectations can be realized remains uncertain.

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rekt_but_resilient

· 7h ago

Goldman Sachs' prediction sounds like just storytelling. No movement in the first 5 months, how can the crypto world endure? By the way, if AI unemployment really kicks in, the Federal Reserve's rate cuts could be much more aggressive than now. When that happens, a reversal and a face slap would be perfect.

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FastLeaver

· 7h ago

Goldman Sachs' forecast... No interest rate cuts in the first half of the year, how can the crypto market wait? Is it another period of endurance? AI unemployment rate is quietly rising, the Federal Reserve might get anxious and act more aggressively than expected. This logical chain is quite flawed; now trusting Goldman Sachs is less reliable than trusting your own K-line. Consensus expectations? They are unreliable, too many variables. The bottoming process in the first half of the year is a bit annoying, but the real question is whether there will be a reversal in the second half, or if it's just more empty promises. The Federal Reserve is being cornered by AI, possibly caught off guard, and a major policy shift would truly be a black swan. Waiting half a year for rate cuts is less useful than studying how to buy the dip now; the real positive effects are still far away.

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blocksnark

· 7h ago

Goldman Sachs' prediction is purely speculative; how can the crypto market survive without a rate cut in the first five months? --- Once the AI unemployment wave erupts, the Federal Reserve will have to back down. At that point, aggressive rate cuts might be the real show. --- Talking about long-term benefits? Wake up, the market is only interested in what's happening now. --- In short, the uncertainty is too great. Who dares to go all-in on this consensus? --- How long will it take to bottom out with reduced volume? I really can't hold on anymore. --- AI automation is indeed easy to overlook. When unemployment data explodes, the Federal Reserve will have no room for negotiation. --- It feels like Goldman Sachs is still just telling stories; the actual implementation is a completely different matter. --- The first five months were really tough. This half-year is destined to be a test of mental resilience.

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Tokenomics911

· 8h ago

Goldman Sachs is hyping again; who can wait if interest rates aren't cut in the first 5 months? --- When the AI unemployment wave hits, the Federal Reserve will definitely have to accelerate liquidity injections. Only a fool would believe Goldman Sachs' prediction. --- In simple terms, the variables are too unpredictable. 2026 is still far away, and Bitcoin still needs to keep consolidating. --- Bottoming out is too uncomfortable; just hoping that policy shifts in the second half can save the day. --- This logic has flaws. When the economy is good, unemployment actually rises. The Federal Reserve is being roasted over the fire. --- Tired of the volume shrinking and bottoming out; can't we get some real policy-driven support? --- Goldman Sachs' flowery words, judging by this trend, will likely be brutally slapped in the face by reality. --- The consensus expectation is a load of nonsense; the risks are just too high.

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DegenWhisperer

· 8h ago

No interest rate cuts in the first five months? That means continuing to eat breadcrumbs. The crypto circle will wait until June to see.

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JustHodlIt

· 8h ago

Goldman Sachs' prediction... If there's no interest rate cut in the first half of the year, it's just setting us up for a trap. The ideal scenario we hoped for, but we had to wait stubbornly for the first 5 months. Can the Bitcoin market hold up? The AI unemployment rate is the real black swan. When the time comes, the Federal Reserve might panic and cut more than expected. Who can predict this game of chess? Consensus expectations... well, just take it with a grain of salt. Let's wait and see. Anyway, holding quietly is definitely the right move.

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tx_pending_forever

· 8h ago

Wait a minute, Goldman Sachs is hyping again. How are we supposed to survive if there's no interest rate cut in the first 5 months?

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