2026 Gold Price Outlook: Spot Gold Price Trends and Market Analysis

Last year, gold prices experienced a record-breaking increase, and the safe-haven demand strengthened due to global economic uncertainties and escalating geopolitical tensions, maintaining high price levels to date. While the investment appeal of gold is likely to persist this year, price adjustments could occur if signs of economic recovery emerge or risk appetite increases. This analysis will review the current status and trend changes of gold prices, key factors influencing gold prices, and provide a forecast for 2026.

Domestic and International Gold Price Status and Market Trends

As of January 13, let’s review the current domestic and international gold prices. The domestic gold price is based on the Korean Gold Exchange’s price per 3.75g of 24-karat gold, and the international gold price is based on the price per ounce in USD(XAU/USD).

Domestic Gold Price Trends

As of January 13, the domestic gold price is 952,000 KRW per 3.75g. Compared to 541,000 KRW at the same time last year, this is approximately a 76% increase. Looking at the trend from the Korean Gold Exchange, the gold price has maintained a continuous upward trajectory over most periods, indicating a structural rather than short-term fluctuation.

International Gold Price Trends

As of January 13, the international gold price is approximately $4,585 per ounce, representing an increase of about 5.85% this year and 37.97% compared to six months ago. Even before February has arrived, this level of increase is quite steep.

Key Factors Driving Gold Price Fluctuations

Domestic and international gold prices tend to follow similar overall trends. Therefore, understanding macro factors affecting the global gold market is essential for predicting price movements.

( Spread of De-dollarization Trends

De-dollarization policies aim to reduce dependence on the US dollar in international trade and finance, promoted through increased use of alternative currencies or holding more physical assets like gold.

The main driving force is strengthening economic sovereignty. China actively promotes the internationalization of the yuan, expanding its use in trade with various countries and lowering dollar dependence through currency swap agreements. India also focuses on increasing the use of the rupee in transactions with major trading partners.

External sanctions evasion is another important background. Countries under US sanctions, such as Russia and Iran, actively utilize alternative currencies and gold to reduce dollar reliance.

The spread of de-dollarization could weaken the dollar’s international standing and increase demand for gold, which may be a significant factor in rising gold prices.

) Global Geopolitical Tensions

There is a very high correlation between gold and geopolitical risks. Gold, as a typical safe-haven asset, sees demand surge during increased geopolitical instability.

During the 2008 global financial crisis, concerns over systemic collapse caused gold prices to spike sharply. In 2011, during the European debt crisis, gold purchases by investors increased as the Eurozone economy deteriorated. In 2020, amid the COVID-19 pandemic, extreme global economic uncertainty led to record-high gold prices.

Ongoing events such as US-China trade disputes, Russia-Ukraine war, and Middle Eastern conflicts, which can significantly impact the global economy, are key factors explaining the recent rise in gold prices.

Concerns Over Recession in Developed Countries

The possibility of economic recession in developed nations also drives gold prices upward. Gold tends to increase in demand not only during geopolitical instability but also amid worsening economic uncertainty.

Central Bank Interest Rate Policies

There is a close relationship between central bank interest rates and gold prices. When interest rates are cut, yields on interest-bearing assets like deposits and bonds decrease, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold. This can lead to increased demand for gold.

Additionally, rate cuts are generally implemented during economic downturns or recession risks, signaling higher economic uncertainty, prompting investors to move funds from other assets into safe-haven gold.

Gold Price Outlook for 2026

Price Forecasts by Expert Institutions

Most financial experts and analysts expect gold prices to continue rising through 2026.

JPMorgan projects that by the end of 2026, gold could reach approximately $5,055 per ounce. Goldman Sachs predicts further increases in gold prices by mid-2026. HSBC offers a more optimistic outlook, suggesting gold could reach $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, while also noting increased volatility.

Synthesizing forecasts from various institutions, it is highly likely that gold prices will maintain a continuous upward trend through 2026. However, some analysts point out the possibility of price corrections in the second half of 2026, so adequate risk management strategies are necessary when investing.

Investment Considerations

When considering gold price investments, it is important to analyze portfolios from a mid- to long-term perspective without being swayed by short-term volatility. Monitoring macro variables such as de-dollarization trends, geopolitical instability, and central bank interest rate policies, and establishing appropriate entry timing and risk management plans, are crucial.