Big Tech Stocks Face Divergent Fortunes Amid Mixed Earnings Results

The technology sector showed stark contrasts on January 29, 2026, as big tech stocks delivered highly polarized earnings results that sent traders scrambling to reassess sector momentum. While the broader market edged downward—with the S&P 500 declining 0.41%, the Dow Jones falling 0.02%, and the Nasdaq 100 slipping 0.80%—individual big tech stocks pulled in dramatically different directions based on their financial performance.

The earnings season for major technology companies revealed a telling story: while some big tech stocks like Meta Platforms surged over 7% on robust revenue guidance and IBM climbed a similar amount after beating expectations, Microsoft plummeted more than 10% after disappointing investors with underwhelming cloud division growth despite meeting consensus revenue expectations. This divergence underscores how big tech stocks are now being judged on increasingly stringent performance metrics.

Meta’s Strong Guidance Lifts Spirits, But Cloud Concerns Linger

Meta Platforms emerged as a clear winner, reporting Q4 revenue of $59.89 billion—exceeding consensus estimates of $58.42 billion. More importantly, management guided for Q1 revenue between $53.5 billion and $56.5 billion, well above analyst expectations of $51.27 billion. This forward guidance proved reassuring to investors concerned about big tech stocks’ ability to maintain momentum.

Conversely, Microsoft’s cloud business failed to ignite enthusiasm. While Azure and cloud services revenue rose 38% year-over-year—meeting consensus expectations—the result landed squarely on expectations rather than surpassing them. Combined with higher-than-anticipated operating expenses, the company’s inability to deliver upside surprise sent big tech stocks in the software category reeling, with Microsoft alone accounting for much of the Nasdaq 100’s weakness.

Support From Energy and Precious Metals Provides Market Cushion

While big tech stocks attracted headlines for their volatility, energy producers staged a remarkable rally as WTI crude oil climbed more than 4% to a 4.25-month high. The surge followed President Trump’s Wednesday comments about seeking renewed negotiations with Iran on nuclear matters, coupled with warnings regarding an assembled US naval fleet positioned to act with “speed and violence.”

Energy stocks benefited widely, with APA Corp and Occidental Petroleum advancing more than 4%, while ConocoPhillips, Diamondback Energy, Marathon Petroleum, Halliburton, and Valero Energy each gained over 3%. This outperformance in energy stood in stark contrast to the struggles of big tech stocks facing earnings disappointments.

Precious metals experienced even more dramatic moves. Gold and silver surged over 3% to establish new record highs, while copper jumped over 8% to an all-time peak. These moves reflected investor concerns about dollar weakness and uncertain US policy directions, prompting a noticeable flight from dollar-denominated assets into hard assets—a dynamic that further pressured big tech stocks priced primarily in US dollars.

Government Uncertainty and Trade Threats Cast Shadows

The headwinds facing big tech stocks and the broader market extend beyond earnings. President Trump’s threatened 100% tariffs on Canadian imports, combined with lingering Greenland acquisition rhetoric and potential government shutdown risks over Department of Homeland Security funding, created an atmosphere of policy uncertainty that limited upside enthusiasm. With potential partial government shutdown looming as the current funding extension expires on Friday, market participants remain cautious about deploying capital.

The US trade deficit widened to $56.8 billion in November—significantly exceeding expectations of $44.0 billion and representing the largest monthly gap in four months. This deterioration suggests tariff implementation could substantially impact corporate earnings, particularly for big tech stocks with significant overseas supply chains and customer bases.

Labor Market Shows Mixed Signals; Economic Data Presents Complexity

Weekly initial jobless claims fell by 1,000 to 209,000, slightly above economist expectations of 205,000, suggesting a marginally softer labor market than anticipated. However, continuing claims dropped 38,000 to a six-month low of 1.827 million, pointing to underlying strength in employment retention—though slightly below the 1.850 million expectation.

Looking ahead, market participants will monitor factory orders (expected to rise 1.6% month-over-month), December producer price inflation data, and the January Chicago PMI survey. These economic indicators will likely influence whether big tech stocks can recover from recent weakness, particularly if they suggest inflation remains elevated and the Federal Reserve maintains a restrictive stance.

Interest Rate Pressures Reflect Inflation Anxieties

Treasury markets experienced selling pressure on January 29, with March 10-year T-notes falling two ticks. The 10-year yield climbed 2.2 basis points to 4.265%, reflecting rising inflation expectations as the 10-year breakeven inflation rate reached a four-month high of 2.378%.

Supply pressures compounded the weakness, as the Treasury announced a $44 billion auction of seven-year notes scheduled for later that trading session. These rising yields create headwinds for big tech stocks, which typically benefit from lower discount rates applied to future earnings projections.

European government bonds moved lower despite the Eurozone reporting stronger-than-expected economic confidence. The January economic confidence indicator surged 2.2 points to a three-year high of 99.4, though Eurozone December M3 money supply growth disappointed at 2.8% year-over-year versus the 3.0% consensus. European derivatives markets reflect zero probability of a European Central Bank rate hike at its February 5 policy meeting.

Stock Market Movers: Winners and Significant Losers

Beyond the big tech stocks grabbing headlines, several other sectors demonstrated notable strength. Royal Caribbean Cruises led S&P 500 gainers, jumping over 15% after guiding full-year adjusted earnings per share to $17.70-$18.10, surpassing the $17.67 consensus. Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings each advanced over 6%.

Transportation and industrial stocks also impressed. C.H. Robinson Worldwide gained over 8% following Q4 adjusted diluted earnings of $1.23, beating consensus of $1.13. Southwest Airlines surged over 6% after guiding Q1 adjusted earnings of at least 45 cents, substantially exceeding the 28-cent consensus. Lockheed Martin rallied over 7% after forecasting full-year earnings of $29.35-$30.25, well above the $29.09 consensus.

On the downside, multiple big tech stocks and technology-adjacent names stumbled beyond Microsoft’s decline. Las Vegas Sands fell over 11% after reporting Q4 Macau operations adjusted property earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $608 million, disappointing against the $626.1 million consensus. ServiceNow tumbled over 11% following Q4 adjusted gross margin guidance of 80.5%—below the expected 81.2%. HubSpot skidded over 10% after BMO Capital Markets reduced its price target from $465 to $385.

Industrial and consumer names also showed weakness. Whirlpool declined over 9% after reporting Q4 net sales of $4.10 billion against consensus of $4.26 billion, while forecasting full-year ongoing earnings per share around $7.00, beneath the expected $7.23. Tractor Supply fell over 5% following Q4 net sales of $3.90 billion against $3.99 billion consensus, with full-year comparable sales guidance of +1% to +3%, below consensus midpoint expectations of 2.96%.

Looking Ahead: Big Tech Stocks Face Earnings Season Reality Check

With 102 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report earnings during the week of January 29, and Apple preparing to announce results after market close that day, the earnings season inflection point arrived. Through the reporting period captured in this analysis, 81% of the 106 companies that had reported beat expectations—historically a supportive backdrop.

According to Bloomberg Intelligence projections, Q4 earnings growth is anticipated to climb 8.6% across the S&P 500. Excluding the Magnificent Seven mega-cap technology stocks, Q4 earnings expansion is forecast at a more modest 4.6%, highlighting the concentrated profit generation within big tech stocks. This disparity suggests that big tech stocks will remain critical to whether earnings can sustain market momentum or if the market might broaden participation among more defensive or cyclical sectors.

Market participants are currently pricing in a 14% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s March 17-18 policy meeting, suggesting limited expectations for near-term policy accommodation that could benefit big tech stocks through lower discount rates.

International markets ended higher on the day, with the Euro Stoxx 50 advancing 0.59%, China’s Shanghai Composite climbing to a two-week high before closing up 0.16%, and Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 edging up 0.03%—demonstrating that concerns over big tech stocks were not uniformly reflected in global equity markets.