Tonight at 21:30, US January CPI data will be released. If the data shows an increase, it may weaken expectations for rate cuts.

Breaking news from HashChain: At 21:30 Beijing time tonight, the US will release January 2026 CPI data:
• Unadjusted CPI Year-over-Year: previous 2.7%, expected 2.5%
• Seasonally Adjusted CPI Month-over-Month: previous 0.3%, expected 0.3%
Market Sentiment and Institutional Views
• Polymarket shows a 96% probability that the CPI Year-over-Year will be ≤ 2.8%
• CPI ≥ 2.9% is considered a black swan event (probability only 2%)
• Goldman Sachs believes that if the data is below or in line with expectations, the Federal Reserve may keep room for two rate cuts
• If the data unexpectedly rises, the Fed may turn hawkish, and rate cut expectations will weaken
Impact on the Crypto Market
1. Below expectations (cooling inflation) → Positive for the market, risk assets may rise
2. In line with expectations (around 2.5%) → Market volatility is low, Bitcoin may fluctuate slightly or move sideways
3. Above expectations (rising inflation) → Market is sensitive; if the annual rate hits 2.9%-3%, it may trigger sharp volatility.
#CPI