Is it surprising? The first to falter is actually the United States.

The dollar is at a crossroads again.
When they initially issued orders, they spoke casually: there would be no surprises, oil prices wouldn't surge wildly, and the dollar wouldn't repeat the stagflation of the 1970s.
But what happened?
From late February to March 9th, six trading days, oil prices skyrocketed from $73 to over $110, a 56% increase, setting a new record.
They weren’t unprepared—
Oil-producing countries immediately announced increased production, reassuring the market;
The US announced high-profile support, including shipping insurance and naval protection, offering a full range of services.
They did everything possible—expanding production, securing sea routes.
But they never expected: Iran remained united and responded with successive counterattacks.
A chain reaction suddenly exploded.
Global capital quickly shifted: selling off gold and digital currencies, rushing to buy oil, grains, and non-ferrous metals.
In the past, virtual economy prices soared wildly; now, the physical economy is raising prices.
This is a fatal blow to the US—
They rely entirely on imports. Rising material costs mean soaring prices, widening trade deficits, and worsening fiscal health.
Oil accounts for 2.8% of US prices, nearly the highest globally. Most families rely on oil-powered cars for shopping, commuting, and picking up children—there’s no escaping it.
History has long shown: once oil prices break $120, people start complaining loudly.
So in 2022, when oil prices just broke $130, the US immediately sold off strategic reserves—two hundred million barrels in a year—using up one-third of their stockpile.
Logically, with oil prices low these past two years, they should have replenished quickly, right?
But they didn’t.
Now, strategic reserves are down to only 410 million barrels, still the same as back then.
They claim “no plans to use reserves in the near future,” but in reality—there’s not enough stock left.
What’s next?
On March 5th, they unprecedentedly allowed India to buy Russian oil;
On March 6th, they hinted at relaxing restrictions on Russian oil.
Currently, there are 120 million barrels of Russian oil floating on the high seas worldwide. They chose the face over the face—prioritizing appearance over substance.
But hoarding oil isn’t the biggest problem.
The real challenge lies ahead—
Cutting interest rates to maintain employment, but oil prices refuse to slow down, and prices are soaring;
Not cutting rates, or even raising them, would immediately make financing difficult for the real economy and increase labor costs—making it impossible to revive manufacturing, and even frontline military readiness could fall behind.
Do you think the dollar can hold up this time?
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