Bitwise CIO: Bitcoin's Million-Dollar Target "Sounds Crazy," But It's Not Out of Reach

Recently, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan published an opinion piece arguing that bitcoin reaching $1 million is not out of reach.

He explained that if the global store-of-value market continues to expand at the pace of the past twenty years, bitcoin only needs to capture approximately 17% of that market to achieve this goal.

Hougan acknowledged that from the current market price perspective, a $1 million valuation means bitcoin needs to appreciate roughly 14 times over, which appears impractical on the surface. However, the global store-of-value market size is not static, and one should not overlook the possibility of its continued expansion.

Currently, the global store-of-value market is approximately $38 trillion, with gold accounting for $36 trillion and bitcoin only $1.4 trillion, representing less than 4% of the market. If market share remains unchanged, bitcoin would need to capture more than half the market to reach $1 million, which would be extremely difficult. However, if its market share continues to climb, the situation could be entirely different.

Hougan also emphasized that the store-of-value market size itself has been continuously expanding. Taking gold as an example, since the first gold ETF was launched in 2004, driven by rising debt and monetary easing, its market value has grown from $2.5 trillion to nearly $40 trillion, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 13%.

Using this growth rate as a basis for projection, the global store-of-value market could reach approximately $121 trillion over the next decade. In this scenario, bitcoin would only need to capture 17% market share for its price to touch $1 million.

Of course, this prediction also has variables. Hougan pointed out that past growth benefited from special historical circumstances such as the global financial crisis and quantitative easing. However, if these trends slow down, gold prices could decline, and bitcoin might fail to capture further market share.

Conversely, if government debt concerns intensify, prompting investors to accelerate their shift toward alternative store-of-value assets, the current projection might even underestimate bitcoin's growth potential.

#比特币 # Market Share