Yardeni Research President Ed Yardeni warned that ongoing Middle East tensions have increased the likelihood of a stock market crash to 35%, citing historical data showing correlations between oil price shocks, economic recessions, and bear markets. While he noted that markets have demonstrated some resilience following dip-buying, he simultaneously cautioned that WTI crude oil prices have risen 42% since the Iran conflict erupted, which could signal an imminent 10% to 20% correction, and pointed out that this bears similarities to stagflation risks from the 1970s, though he hopes the conflict will be resolved more quickly.